968
FXUS64 KTSA 071537
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1037 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
- SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
- SPOTTY SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE CLEARING OUT FRIDAY NIGHT.
- PLEASANT WEEKEND W/ LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AR.
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WAS LOCATED OVER N-CENTRAL OK/ S-
CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS ONGOING IN THE VICINITY.
OVERALL, THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON... DEPICTING HIGHEST POPS OVER NE OKLAHOMA AND NW
ARKANSAS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES MAY TEND TO LINGER ACROSS AREAS FURTHER NORTH, IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ACHIEVED
TODAY WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON DURATION OF CLOUD COVER, BUT
SUFFICIENT SUN BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE OKLAHOMA AND INTO NW ARKANSAS. LAPSE RATES WILL BE
FAIRLY STEEP GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT (0C AT 700MB, -15C AT 500MB) AND
MAY ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY
FAVORABLE, ISOLATED COLD CORE FUNNELS OR BRIEF/ WEAK TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTER OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD WITH THE COLD CORE OVERSPREADING THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON / EVENING. A STEADY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING PRIMARILY ACROSS NE
OK. A MORE NOTABLE UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE W/ LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG
WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. STORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH INTENSITIES SLOWLY DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENT AND DURATION OF CLOUD COVER AND IMPACTS ON AFTERNOON TEMPS
WILL BE A FACTOR IN OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. PRECIP COVERAGE
WANES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS BOTH DAYS W/ BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND MAYBE A BRIEF
STRONGER STORM POSSIBLE.
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS RETURNING ACROSS WESTERN AR AS THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW
LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE
PASSES NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
ONCE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL RETURN TOWARD MORE TYPICAL MID MAY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING AND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW-MID 80S BY MID
WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
RECENT SURFACE OBS SHOW IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT THE OK TERMINALS AS
WELL AS AT FSM AS DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTHEAST OK.
THESE FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS TO MAINLY MVFR OCCUR BY
MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR CEILINGS RETURN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT
THE AR SITES. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND INTO
THIS EVENING, MOSTLY HIT OR MISS VARIETY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT WILL BE VARIABLE THROUGH THE DAY.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 72 54 70 54 / 70 50 50 20
FSM 77 57 76 57 / 40 40 50 20
MLC 77 54 73 55 / 30 20 30 20
BVO 68 52 69 51 / 90 40 50 20
FYV 73 52 72 53 / 60 50 70 30
BYV 67 55 69 55 / 70 50 80 30
MKO 74 55 69 54 / 60 50 50 20
MIO 66 54 68 53 / 80 50 70 30
F10 74 54 69 54 / 50 40 40 20
HHW 77 56 73 56 / 20 10 20 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...67
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