835
FXUS64 KTSA 071741
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1241 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
- SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
- SPOTTY SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY BEFORE CLEARING OUT FRIDAY NIGHT.
- PLEASANT WEEKEND W/ LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AR.
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WAS LOCATED OVER N-CENTRAL OK/ S-
CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS ONGOING IN THE VICINITY.
OVERALL, THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON... DEPICTING HIGHEST POPS OVER NE OKLAHOMA AND NW
ARKANSAS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WILL TEND TO GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE OKLAHOMA. HOWEVER, MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES MAY TEND TO LINGER ACROSS AREAS FURTHER NORTH, IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY ACHIEVED
TODAY WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON DURATION OF CLOUD COVER, BUT
SUFFICIENT SUN BREAKS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE OKLAHOMA AND INTO NW ARKANSAS. LAPSE RATES WILL BE
FAIRLY STEEP GIVEN COLD AIR ALOFT (0C AT 700MB, -15C AT 500MB) AND
MAY ALLOW FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STRONGEST CELLS. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS NOT OVERLY
FAVORABLE, ISOLATED COLD CORE FUNNELS OR BRIEF/ WEAK TORNADOES
CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CENTER OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EASTWARD WITH THE COLD CORE OVERSPREADING THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON / EVENING. A STEADY INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING PRIMARILY ACROSS NE
OK. A MORE NOTABLE UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE W/ LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED STRONG
WINDS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. STORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH INTENSITIES SLOWLY DECREASING AFTER SUNSET.
EXTENT AND DURATION OF CLOUD COVER AND IMPACTS ON AFTERNOON TEMPS
WILL BE A FACTOR IN OVERALL THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. PRECIP COVERAGE
WANES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS BOTH DAYS W/ BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND MAYBE A BRIEF
STRONGER STORM POSSIBLE.
PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MILD TEMPS AND
LIGHT WINDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS RETURNING ACROSS WESTERN AR AS THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW
LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE
PASSES NEAR THE FORECAST AREA.
ONCE THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS THE WEATHER PATTERN
WILL RETURN TOWARD MORE TYPICAL MID MAY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS RETURNING AND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW-MID 80S BY MID
WEEK. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO THE FORECAST BY
LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING, WITH A PERIOD OF HIGH-END MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. DESPITE THIS, TEMPORARY CEILING/ VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS/ ISOLATED STORMS THAT IMPACT TAF SITES
THROUGH 03Z. BY 06Z, CIGS WILL BEGIN TO FALL AGAIN AND WIDESPREAD
MVFR/ IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
THERE MAY ALSO BE A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VSBYS AGAIN
TOMORROW MORNING, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR E OK AND NW AR. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AREAWIDE. SFC WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 54 70 54 75 / 50 50 20 10
FSM 57 76 57 77 / 40 50 20 30
MLC 54 73 55 76 / 20 30 20 30
BVO 52 69 51 76 / 40 50 20 10
FYV 52 72 53 74 / 50 70 30 30
BYV 55 69 55 70 / 50 80 30 30
MKO 55 69 54 72 / 50 50 20 30
MIO 54 68 53 71 / 50 70 30 10
F10 54 69 54 73 / 40 40 20 20
HHW 56 73 56 72 / 10 20 10 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...43
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