502
FXUS64 KTSA 080116
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
816 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
- SCATTERED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
- SPOTTY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE CLEARING OUT FRIDAY NIGHT.
- PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN ARKANSAS MONDAY. WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST OK AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AR. THESE ARE BEING DRIVEN
BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN,
ISOLATED HAIL UP TO 1" IN DIAMETER, AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40-50 MPH.
HOWEVER, WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE REMAINING STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DROP TO 10-30% OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTH AS WELL.
THE WEEKEND WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE
UPPER LOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PROHIBIT SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR
AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY, WHICH MAY BRING
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO MAINLY NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS MONDAY.
A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE REGION. WITHIN THIS CONVECTION, A PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED. MUCH OF THIS
ACTIVITY IS SUGGESTED TO WEAKEN MID EVENING. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
MVFR BECOMING IFR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD BACK OVER MUCH OF THE CWA
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF LIFR IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
WITHIN THESE CONDITIONS, AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY/DRIZZLE COULD
DEVELOP AND WILL CONTINUE TEMPO GROUPS FOR TIMING. DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY, CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO IMPROVE WITH MVFR LATE
MORNING AND VFR CONDITION RETURNING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ADDITIONAL STORM POTENTIAL EXISTS DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
WILL ADD PROB30 GROUP FOR TIMING. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY
TONIGHT LOOK TO BE BETWEEN WEST AND NORTH THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 55 72 55 74 / 70 30 10 10
FSM 57 75 56 75 / 40 20 10 30
MLC 54 73 55 74 / 30 10 10 30
BVO 51 73 50 74 / 60 30 10 10
FYV 52 71 51 72 / 60 50 20 30
BYV 54 71 53 71 / 70 60 20 30
MKO 54 72 54 74 / 60 30 10 30
MIO 54 71 52 72 / 70 50 20 10
F10 53 72 54 74 / 60 20 10 20
HHW 55 74 56 74 / 20 10 10 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20
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