736
FXUS64 KTSA 080543
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1243 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
- SCATTERED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
- SPOTTY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
BEFORE CLEARING OUT FRIDAY NIGHT.
- PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN ARKANSAS MONDAY. WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 812 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST OK AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AR. THESE ARE BEING DRIVEN
BY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH
SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN,
ISOLATED HAIL UP TO 1" IN DIAMETER, AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40-50 MPH.
HOWEVER, WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING THE REMAINING STORMS
SHOULD WEAKEN. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DROP TO 10-30% OVERNIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2025
LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING, WITH
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.
THE UPPER LOW WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, WITH SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SHIFTING SOUTH AS WELL.
THE WEEKEND WILL BE PLEASANT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA WITH THE
UPPER LOW FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PROHIBIT SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR
AREA. THE UPPER LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST MONDAY, WHICH MAY BRING
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BACK TO MAINLY NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS MONDAY.
A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR, PERHAPS A
MIXTURE OF IFR/LIFR AT THE AR TAF SITES, OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY
THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING AT FOG DEVELOPING A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AT MLC, FYV, XNA, AND ROG. LATEST OBS SHOW
PATCHY OFF/ON FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AT FYV EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE FOG SHOULD ERODE BY MID-MORNING, AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE.
CEILINGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR LATE IN THE MORNING OR
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR IN THE
AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED PROB30 GROUPS AT THE TAF SITES WITH THE BEST
PROBABILITIES OF THIS OCCURRING. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL TURN NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY BY MID-LATE MORNING, REMAINING
AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 72 55 74 49 / 30 10 10 0
FSM 75 56 75 52 / 20 10 30 0
MLC 73 55 74 50 / 10 10 30 0
BVO 73 50 74 45 / 30 10 10 0
FYV 71 51 72 45 / 50 20 30 0
BYV 71 53 71 46 / 60 20 30 0
MKO 72 54 74 49 / 30 10 30 0
MIO 71 52 72 46 / 50 20 10 0
F10 72 54 74 50 / 20 10 20 0
HHW 74 56 74 54 / 10 10 30 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...67
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