045
FXUS64 KTSA 080822
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
322 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
- SPOTTY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY AND FRIDAY.
- PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN ARKANSAS MONDAY. WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG HAVE DEVELOPED IN WAKE UP THE PASSING
UPPER LOW. AREAS OF VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE HALF MILE APPEAR LIKELY
TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MORNING WARRANTING AN ADVISORY, WHICH MAY
BE EXPANDED PENDING OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS TROUGHING ALOFT
REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED NORTH
OF INTERSTATE 40. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE
WEAKER THAN OBSERVED YESTERDAY, HOWEVER LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS COULD
OCCUR WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS. COVERAGE WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET.
SIMILAR PATTERN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY THOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE WILL
FOCUS SOUTH OF INTERCEDE 40 AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY
SHIFTS SOUTHWARD.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
PLEASANT WEEKEND EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH AN EVOLVING UPPER LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD ON MONDAY WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP SHIELD POSSIBLY SPREADING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WESTERN AR AND MAYBE FAR EASTERN OK.
THEREAFTER, A MORE TYPICAL MID MAY PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS STRENGTHENING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO MID TO UPPER 80S
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO BECOME
NOTICEABLY HIGHER THAN RECENT DAYS PRODUCING WARM MUGGY AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUE TO
APPEAR LOW, BUT THE EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN OF PREVAILING STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ATOP AN UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IS FICKLE
AND CAN CHANGE QUICKLY. ONE FEATURE OF NOTE IS A POTENTIAL WEAK
FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION AROUND THURSDAY AND THIS BOUNDARY MAY
THEN STALL AND LIFT NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING IN VICINITY. THIS
SCENARIO IS ONE TO WATCH WITH LATER FORECASTS. EVENTUALLY THE
PERSISTENT TROUGHING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS IS LIKELY TO
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE DAYS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
PLAINS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MID MAY CLIMATOLOGY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1243 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO MVFR/IFR, PERHAPS A
MIXTURE OF IFR/LIFR AT THE AR TAF SITES, OVERNIGHT TONIGHT/EARLY
THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING AT FOG DEVELOPING A FEW
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AT MLC, FYV, XNA, AND ROG. LATEST OBS SHOW
PATCHY OFF/ON FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED AT FYV EARLY THIS MORNING.
THE FOG SHOULD ERODE BY MID-MORNING, AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNRISE.
CEILINGS/VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR/MVFR LATE IN THE MORNING OR
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR IN THE
AFTERNOON. MAINTAINED PROB30 GROUPS AT THE TAF SITES WITH THE BEST
PROBABILITIES OF THIS OCCURRING. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL TURN NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY BY MID-LATE MORNING, REMAINING
AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 72 53 75 49 / 20 10 0 0
FSM 76 57 77 52 / 20 20 20 0
MLC 73 55 76 50 / 10 0 20 0
BVO 72 50 75 45 / 30 10 0 0
FYV 71 52 73 45 / 40 20 10 0
BYV 70 54 72 46 / 60 20 10 0
MKO 71 53 75 49 / 20 20 10 0
MIO 71 53 73 45 / 50 10 0 0
F10 72 54 75 49 / 20 10 10 0
HHW 73 56 75 54 / 0 0 30 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ057-058-
062-063-068-069-072-074.
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARZ001-002-
010-011-019-020.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...67
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