160
FXUS64 KTSA 081733
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1233 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
- SPOTTY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TODAY AND FRIDAY.
- PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN ARKANSAS MONDAY. WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1019 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED, LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS
REMAINS IN THE VICINITY AS A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW EXITS THE
REGION TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS
WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. ACTIVITY IS NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD OR AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAY WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY IN PLACE, HOWEVER
SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD STILL DEVELOP WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.
COVERAGE WILL WANE AFTER SUNSET. ADDITIONAL FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION FALLS THIS AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR PATTERN IS EXPECTED
ON FRIDAY THOUGH PRECIP COVERAGE WILL FOCUS SOUTH OF INTERCEDE 40
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S INTO THE WEEKEND.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
PLEASANT WEEKEND EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE
REGION WITH AN EVOLVING UPPER LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE GULF COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL THEN LIFT NORTHWARD ON MONDAY WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP SHIELD POSSIBLY SPREADING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO WESTERN AR AND MAYBE FAR EASTERN OK.
THEREAFTER, A MORE TYPICAL MID MAY PATTERN DEVELOPS WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS STRENGTHENING AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO MID TO UPPER 80S
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO BECOME
NOTICEABLY HIGHER THAN RECENT DAYS PRODUCING WARM MUGGY AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MID TO LATE WEEK CONTINUE TO
APPEAR LOW, BUT THE EVOLVING WEATHER PATTERN OF PREVAILING STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ATOP AN UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR IS FICKLE
AND CAN CHANGE QUICKLY. ONE FEATURE OF NOTE IS A POTENTIAL WEAK
FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION AROUND THURSDAY AND THIS BOUNDARY MAY
THEN STALL AND LIFT NORTHWARD WHILE REMAINING IN VICINITY. THIS
SCENARIO IS ONE TO WATCH WITH LATER FORECASTS. EVENTUALLY THE
PERSISTENT TROUGHING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS IS LIKELY TO
PRODUCE ONE OR MORE DAYS OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE
PLAINS WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MID MAY CLIMATOLOGY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS,
THOUGH NW AR SITES COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED MVFR CIGS FOR A COUPLE
MORE HOURS. SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR, WITH ANY ACTIVITY
WANING AFTER SUNSET. ANY PLACES THAT DO SEE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
COULD ALSO SEE MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR KFYV AND KFSM THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR CIGS WILL ALSO LOOK TO MOVE BACK IN TONIGHT ACROSS NW
AR AND SE OK AS THE STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 72 53 75 49 / 20 10 0 0
FSM 76 57 77 52 / 20 20 20 0
MLC 73 55 76 50 / 10 0 20 0
BVO 72 50 75 45 / 30 10 0 0
FYV 71 52 73 45 / 40 20 10 0
BYV 70 54 72 46 / 60 20 10 0
MKO 71 53 75 49 / 20 20 10 0
MIO 71 53 73 45 / 50 10 0 0
F10 72 54 75 49 / 20 10 10 0
HHW 73 56 75 54 / 0 0 30 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page