658
FXUS64 KTSA 090235
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
935 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
- SPOTTY SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES FRIDAY.
- PLEASANT WEEKEND WITH LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS
MAINLY WESTERN ARKANSAS MONDAY. WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
AT MID EVENING, A POSITIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINED
POSITIONED FROM OKLAHOMA/TEXAS TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE CONTINUED TO WRAP CLOUD COVER
SOUTHWESTWARD BACK OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON HAD MOSTLY
DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, THOUGH A FEW LINGERED
ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT MID EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
OVERNIGHT, THE TROF AXIS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTH SOUTHEAST
AND BE CENTERED MORE OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA FOR FRIDAY COMPARED
TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA TODAY. CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO ALSO
SAG SOUTHWARD TONIGHT AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. IN RESPONSE, LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH
THE LIGHT MOISTURE FROM AFTERNOON RAINS COULD ALLOW FOR PATCHY
AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY ONCE AGAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT. A LIMITING FACTOR TO THE AMOUNT
OF COVERAGE COULD BE THE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. FOR NOW WILL ADD A
MENTION OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR LATE
TONIGHT. LASTLY, WITH THESE EXPECTED CONDITIONS TONIGHT, LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET DOWN INTO THE 50S FOR THE CWA.
FOR THE EVENING UPDATE, HAVE ADDED ONLY MINOR DETAILS TO THE
HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT/SKY GRIDS FOR TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEMS TO
REPRESENT THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED AT
THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN
FRIDAY, MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS
AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS SLOWLY SOUTH. A DRY AND PLEASANT WEEKEND IS
THEN ON TAP, WITH LOW SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES RETURNING MONDAY
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS AN UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST
JUST EAST OF OUR AREA.
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN. SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD, BUT MAY INCREASE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CDT THU MAY 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR MOST
AREAS. FEW-SCT LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH THE PATCHY
SHOWERS (AND VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS) WILL MOSTLY DIMINISH
NEAR SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT. AFTER
MIDNIGHT, MARGINAL MVFR CEILINGS WITH VIS DOWN TO 4-6 SM COULD
DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, BUT CLOUDS WILL THIN DURING THE
DAYTIME FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20 KTS FROM THE
NORTHEAST WITH JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 56 76 50 76 / 20 10 10 0
FSM 56 78 52 78 / 20 20 10 0
MLC 56 77 52 77 / 0 20 10 0
BVO 53 76 45 77 / 20 10 10 0
FYV 52 74 44 75 / 20 10 10 0
BYV 53 73 45 74 / 20 10 10 0
MKO 54 76 49 76 / 20 10 10 0
MIO 52 73 45 74 / 20 10 10 0
F10 54 75 50 76 / 10 10 10 0
HHW 56 75 55 76 / 0 30 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06
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