022
FXUS64 KTSA 260952
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
452 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2025
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY.
- WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING AND MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. FLOOD SAFETY MESSAGING
WILL REMAIN A FOCUS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
A LARGE MCS IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. THE
HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS MOSTLY SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF OUR AREA.
THE LARGE AREA OF RAINFALL WILL DIMINISH AND SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH
OF OUR AREA AS THE DAY WEARS ON, BUT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL MOSTLY BE UNDER ONE INCH, BUT HEAVY RAINS THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS HAVE RESULTED IN CONSIDERABLE FLASH FLOODING AND
MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING, SO HAVE MAINTAINED THE FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH TODAY. UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL IN MOST
PLACES TODAY, WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S IN PARTS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TO THE UPPER 70S NEAR THE RED RIVER.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT LIKELY
TO BE EXCESSIVE. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT
CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND, AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SETS UP TO
OUR EAST. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MAY ROTATE SOUTH DOWN THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH RESULTING IN AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS,
BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY WARM BACK CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL
SITES. A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED ACROSS E OK
AND NW AR AS A COMPLEX OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
GRADUALLY MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
FURTHER BY 10-12Z, WITH IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AREAWIDE.
WIDESPREAD PRECIP EXITS DURING THE MORNING, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE AFTERNOON.
CEILINGS ARE SHOWN TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS,
MAINLY ACROSS SE OK. HOWEVER, A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 71 58 72 57 / 80 50 30 0
FSM 70 60 76 59 / 90 60 40 10
MLC 75 60 75 57 / 80 60 20 10
BVO 70 56 71 52 / 80 60 20 0
FYV 66 56 72 53 / 90 50 50 10
BYV 63 56 71 54 / 90 50 60 10
MKO 71 58 73 56 / 80 60 30 0
MIO 65 56 69 53 / 80 50 40 0
F10 72 58 72 57 / 80 60 20 0
HHW 77 63 78 60 / 90 70 20 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>076.
AR...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-
029.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...43
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page