793
FXUS64 KTSA 261730
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1230 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TODAY
THROUGH TONIGHT.
- WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING AND MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY. FLOOD SAFETY MESSAGING
WILL REMAIN A FOCUS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TODAY )
ISSUED AT 947 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
MID LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EAST CENTRAL OK WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS
STEADILY DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OVER THE PAST HOUR. EXPECT A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT OVERALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL BE MUCH LESS THAN
RECENT DAYS GIVEN EXPECTED INSTABILITY PROFILES. EXTREME SE OK
MAY BE NEARER A FEW STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER FOCUS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA. THE FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELLED AS
ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS ARE NOT EXPECTED. AN ISOLATED
HEAVIER AMOUNT COULD DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY CAUSE ISSUES GIVEN THE
EXCESSIVE RAINS FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS, BUT WIDESPREAD RENEWED
FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY. CLOUDY AND COOL THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST
UPDATE WILL ADDRESS PRECIP COVERAGE TRENDS AND LOWER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BUT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT LIKELY
TO BE EXCESSIVE. DRY WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR WEDNESDAY, BUT
CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA KEEPING TEMPERATURES
BELOW NORMAL. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
OVER THE WEEKEND, AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SETS UP TO
OUR EAST. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES MAY ROTATE SOUTH DOWN THE BACKSIDE
OF THE TROUGH RESULTING IN AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS,
BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AT THIS TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY WARM BACK CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
WIDESPREAD FLIGHT LEVEL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A MIX OF LOW VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE
ONGOING WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A TREND TOWARD MVFR TO IFR
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE DOES BRING INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO SOUTHERN LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST
WILL INTRODUCE THIS POTENTIAL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 71 59 72 56 / 50 40 20 0
FSM 70 61 78 59 / 80 40 20 10
MLC 75 60 76 58 / 40 40 20 10
BVO 70 55 70 53 / 50 40 20 0
FYV 66 57 74 53 / 80 40 40 10
BYV 63 57 71 53 / 80 40 40 10
MKO 71 59 73 55 / 60 40 30 10
MIO 65 57 70 53 / 60 40 30 10
F10 72 59 73 56 / 40 40 20 10
HHW 77 63 78 61 / 30 60 20 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07
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