001
FXUS64 KTSA 262324
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
624 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE (40-60%)
THROUGH TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS; NO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING EXPECTED.
- MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN, MIXED IN WITH PATCHY DRIZZLE, CONTINUES TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
THAT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. IT HAS HELPED PRODUCE THICK CLOUD
COVER AND HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES RATHER COOL THUS FAR, WITH
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S (EVEN UPPER 50S
IN FAR NW AR). ANTICIPATE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY, THIS EVENING, AND THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN, WITH PERHAPS OCCASIONAL THUNDER, IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL OK THIS EVENING. HI-RES MODELS SHOW A COMPLEX OF
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, GROWING UPSCALE AND
LOSING STRENGTH AS THEY PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTHEAST
OK LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE STORMS MAY
AFFECT LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-40. WITH INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW THROUGH TONIGHT, THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT APPEARS VERY
LOW AT THIS TIME, BUT MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY COME WITH IT IF
THE COMPLEX IS ABLE TO HOLD UP. AT THIS TIME, RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD STAY LIGHT AND ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT
WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS. THE CURRENT AREAL FLOOD WARNINGS THAT
ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS EASTERN OK HAVE BEEN EXTENDED FOR AT LEAST
ANOTHER 24 HOURS, THROUGH 3 PM TOMORROW.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, DESPITE THE
STUBBORN THICK CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE
MID-UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE DISTRICT.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWN THROUGH THE
DAYTIME TUESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION. ITS
ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL STICK AROUND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN DRY, A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
DURING THE DAYTIME, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST
AR. PERSISTENT THICK CLOUD COVER TUESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY COOL FOR LATE MAY AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
70S.
AFTER ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. THE
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (50-60% CHANCE), AREA-WIDE, WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF VARIANCE IN MODEL/ENSEMBLE DATA, LEADING
TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE, INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING. STAY TUNED FOR
BETTER DETAILS IN LATER FORECAST DISCUSSIONS.
DRY AND MOSTLY PLEASANT WEATHER LOOKS TO PREVAIL ON FRIDAY, ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. ANOTHER
QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH LONG-
RANGE MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE'S EXACT TRACK.
THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT THAT COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN SOME
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (20% FOR NOW), WITH OVERALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDING BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE A DRY AND WARMING TREND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
POOR AVIATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID
TAF PERIOD WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AREAWIDE TONIGHT AND ONLY
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THE W AR TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE IFR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS LATE TONIGHT AND FOR AN HOUR OR TWO PAST DAYBREAK
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES UNDER A MILE AT
FYV. EXISTING SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHWARD IN PARTS OF THE AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 COULD LEAD TO MVFR VISIBILITIES
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD AT TUL/RVS AND THE W AR
SITES, GIVEN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. LATER TONIGHT, WILL CARRY
PROB30 GROUPS FOR SHOWER IMPACTS AT TUL/RVS/FSM AND FOR
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT MLC DUE TO EXPECTED DETERIORATING
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 59 72 56 76 / 40 20 0 10
FSM 61 78 59 80 / 40 20 10 10
MLC 60 76 58 78 / 40 20 10 10
BVO 55 70 53 74 / 40 20 0 10
FYV 57 74 53 76 / 40 40 10 10
BYV 57 71 53 73 / 40 40 10 10
MKO 59 73 55 76 / 40 30 10 10
MIO 57 70 53 74 / 40 30 10 10
F10 59 73 56 77 / 40 20 10 10
HHW 63 78 61 79 / 60 20 10 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...22
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