382
FXUS64 KTSA 270248
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
948 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS (20-60%) AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS; NO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING EXPECTED.
- MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
AT MID EVENING A MCV WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA, WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS. SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ORIENTED INSTABILITY AXIS WERE ONGOING WITH BOTH
FEATURES. THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE/ELEVATED INSTABILITY
AXIS WAS POSITIONED FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. EAST OF THE INSTABILITY, LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS, DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AND TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO UPPER 60S WERE COMMON OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ALSO REMAINED
MAINLY WITHIN THE TERRAIN LOCATIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THE MCV IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS EAST
NORTHEAST TRACK AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OUT OF THE INSTABILITY
AXIS. THIS SHOULD ALSO WEAKEN THE ONGOING CONVECTION WITH MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ON ITS
EASTWARD TRACK WITH THE POTENTIAL OF THE NORTHERN END OF
SHOWERS/STORMS REACHING JUST NORTH OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT. WILL
KEEP A MENTION OF CHANCE THUNDER FOR FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THROUGH 06Z AND THEN WEAKEN THUNDER POTENTIALS OVERNIGHT AS THE
REMAINING INSTABILITY AXIS SAGS SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES, SLIGHT TO LOW END RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
THE PARENT/MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THROUGH TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AS THE
DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME HAD SAG SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. HOWEVER, ANY
ADDITIONAL HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON TOP OF RECENT RAINS WOULD QUICKLY
INCREASE FLOODING CONCERNS.
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LIGHT EAST TO NORTHERLY WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM COOLING ALL THAT MUCH. THUS, FORECAST LOWS OF
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. FOR THE
EVENING UPDATE, HAVE ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE
AND ALSO TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY TREND DOWN THROUGH THE
DAYTIME TUESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION. ITS
ASSOCIATED TROUGH WILL STICK AROUND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN DRY, A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
DURING THE DAYTIME, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST
AR. PERSISTENT THICK CLOUD COVER TUESDAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY COOL FOR LATE MAY AGAIN WITH DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
70S.
AFTER ANOTHER MOSTLY DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY, THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. THE
UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM AND SURFACE FRONT WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (50-60% CHANCE), AREA-WIDE, WITH MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING THURSDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE PASSING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF VARIANCE IN MODEL/ENSEMBLE DATA, LEADING
TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THINGS WILL EVOLVE, INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLOODING. STAY TUNED FOR
BETTER DETAILS IN LATER FORECAST DISCUSSIONS.
DRY AND MOSTLY PLEASANT WEATHER LOOKS TO PREVAIL ON FRIDAY, ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. ANOTHER
QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH LONG-
RANGE MODELS IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE'S EXACT TRACK.
THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT THAT COLD FRONT WILL BRING IN SOME
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (20% FOR NOW), WITH OVERALL AMOUNTS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDING BUILDING INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THAT SHOULD CAUSE A DRY AND WARMING TREND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
POOR AVIATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID
TAF PERIOD WITH IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AREAWIDE TONIGHT AND ONLY
SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THE W AR TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE IFR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS LATE TONIGHT AND FOR AN HOUR OR TWO PAST DAYBREAK
TOMORROW MORNING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR VISIBILITIES UNDER A MILE AT
FYV. EXISTING SHOWERS LIFTING NORTHWARD IN PARTS OF THE AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 COULD LEAD TO MVFR VISIBILITIES
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE PERIOD AT TUL/RVS AND THE W AR
SITES, GIVEN UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS. LATER TONIGHT, WILL CARRY
PROB30 GROUPS FOR SHOWER IMPACTS AT TUL/RVS/FSM AND FOR
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT MLC DUE TO EXPECTED DETERIORATING
THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 60 72 56 76 / 30 20 0 10
FSM 62 78 59 80 / 30 20 10 10
MLC 61 76 58 78 / 50 20 10 10
BVO 57 70 53 74 / 30 20 0 10
FYV 58 74 53 76 / 20 40 10 10
BYV 57 71 53 73 / 20 40 10 10
MKO 61 73 55 76 / 30 30 10 10
MIO 58 70 53 74 / 20 30 10 10
F10 61 73 56 77 / 50 20 10 10
HHW 63 78 61 79 / 60 20 10 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...22
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