004
FXUS64 KTSA 270912
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
412 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE TODAY. GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS; NO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING EXPECTED.
- MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL FOR LATE MAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WEDNESDAY, BUT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHILE SOME
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR
WHAT WE SAW THIS PAST WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
THURSDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN.
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH TO THE
WEST OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. RAISED
THE NBM POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME, AND IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD,
POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED FURTHER IN THE COMING DAYS.
AFTER A DRY SUNDAY, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AS
OF 05Z, DRIFTING EAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS LARGELY EXPECTED TO DECAY
BEFORE ARRIVING TO E OK TAF SITES, HOWEVER SOME LIGHT RAIN CANNOT
BE RULED OUT TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR VSBY REDUCTIONS AS WELL, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NW
AR. VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO NEAR OR LESS THAN 2SM FOR
FYV/XNA/ROG, WITH AT LEAST LOW POTENTIAL FOR LESS THAN 1SM IN FYV.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT OCCURS DURING THE LATE MORNING/ AFTERNOON,
AND CIGS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB INTO MVFR CATEGORY AREAWIDE. SE OK
AND W-CENTRAL AR SITES MAY IMPROVE TO VFR CATEGORY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE CIGS DECREASE AREAWIDE TOMORROW NIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 73 58 78 59 / 20 10 10 60
FSM 77 61 82 63 / 20 10 10 30
MLC 76 59 80 60 / 20 10 20 40
BVO 72 53 77 55 / 20 10 10 60
FYV 72 56 78 57 / 30 10 10 30
BYV 71 56 77 59 / 30 10 10 30
MKO 74 58 79 60 / 20 10 10 40
MIO 69 55 76 58 / 30 10 10 50
F10 74 58 78 59 / 20 10 10 50
HHW 78 63 81 62 / 10 10 30 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...43
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