489
FXUS64 KTSA 271735
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
- WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE TODAY. GENERALLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS; NO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING EXPECTED.
- MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
- WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER THE
SW KS/NW OK BORDER REGION THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK EAST CLOSE TO THE OK/KS BORDER THRU THE DAY. LIFT IN ADVANCE
OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW
STORMS, ESPECIALLY EAST AND SOUTH WHERE MORE DAYTIME HEATING IS
POSSIBLE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. RAIN/STORM CHANCES
SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AND
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL FOR LATE MAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
WEDNESDAY, BUT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. WHILE SOME
DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ANYWHERE NEAR
WHAT WE SAW THIS PAST WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
THURSDAY WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND RAIN.
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES
BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH TO THE
WEST OF AN UPPER TROUGH TO OUR EAST AND MAY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. RAISED
THE NBM POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME, AND IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD,
POPS MAY NEED TO BE RAISED FURTHER IN THE COMING DAYS.
AFTER A DRY SUNDAY, SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES LOOK TO RETURN DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
CIGS HAVE INCREASED TO MVFR AREAWIDE AS OF TAF ISSUANCE, WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING TO VFR AT MOST SITES.
THE MAIN EXCEPTION WILL BE AT THE FAR NW AR SITES, WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MVFR OR BLO FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. AN
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS THRU THE
AFTERNOON, WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS FAR NW AR WHERE SOME
PROB30 GROUPS WERE ADDED. LATER ON TONIGHT, EXPECT DETERIORATING
FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR IN SOME SPOTS AROUND
DAYBREAK, BEFORE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE AGAIN BY MID-MORNING
WEDNESDAY.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 58 78 59 73 / 10 10 60 60
FSM 61 82 63 78 / 10 10 30 60
MLC 59 80 60 77 / 10 20 40 60
BVO 53 77 55 72 / 10 10 60 50
FYV 56 78 57 74 / 10 10 30 70
BYV 56 77 59 71 / 10 10 30 70
MKO 58 79 60 72 / 10 10 40 60
MIO 55 76 58 70 / 10 10 50 60
F10 58 78 59 73 / 10 10 50 60
HHW 63 81 62 78 / 10 30 30 50
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30
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