753
FXUS64 KTSA 280200
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
900 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
- MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING, TAKING WITH IT SOME SPOTTY SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS THAT
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED THIS AFTERNOON. STUBBORN LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL SLOWLY SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. OTHERWISE, A COOL NIGHT
IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 50S AND LIGHT WINDS.
UPDATE FOR THIS EVENING, REMOVED MENTIONABLE POPS FROM THE
FORECAST AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT
TRENDS.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
MOST OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS WE REMAIN IN BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL
RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF EASTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
FORCES ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK SOUTHEAST. STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST, BUT AT THIS TIME
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK EXCESSIVE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE LIMITED.
ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SHAPING UP FRIDAY AND MOST OF
SATURDAY, BUT YET ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS LEADING TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS
WAVE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE KEPT LOW FOR THE TIME BEING. PATTERN
BEGINS TO SHIFT TO A WARMER ONE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DEEP
WESTERN TROUGH AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF THE MAIN
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST ACROSS NE OK AND FAR NW AR, WITH IMPROVEMENT
NOTED THIS AFTERNOON AT MLC AND FSM. A PERIOD OF IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR REMAINS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AT THE NE OK SITES, ALTHOUGH THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN AT ALL
SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH BOTH LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY POTENTIAL. THE FAR NW AR SITES SHOULD SEE A MULTI-HOUR
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS, INCLUDING FOG DEVELOPMENT FOR FYV, FROM
LATE EVENING TO JUST PAST DAYBREAK TOMORROW. ALL SITES SHOULD SEE
VFR CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.
WIND SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PROBLEMATIC.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 57 75 60 73 / 0 10 50 60
FSM 60 80 64 78 / 10 0 30 60
MLC 59 78 62 77 / 10 10 40 60
BVO 53 74 56 72 / 0 10 60 50
FYV 55 76 59 74 / 10 10 30 70
BYV 56 75 59 71 / 20 0 20 70
MKO 57 76 61 72 / 0 10 40 60
MIO 54 74 59 70 / 10 10 50 60
F10 57 76 61 73 / 0 10 40 60
HHW 62 79 63 78 / 0 30 30 50
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...22
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