691
FXUS64 KTSA 280532
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1232 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON MAY 26 2025
- MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS SLIDING EAST OF THE REGION THIS
EVENING, TAKING WITH IT SOME SPOTTY SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS THAT
HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCED THIS AFTERNOON. STUBBORN LOW LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL SLOWLY SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. OTHERWISE, A COOL NIGHT
IS IN STORE WITH TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 50S AND LIGHT WINDS.
UPDATE FOR THIS EVENING, REMOVED MENTIONABLE POPS FROM THE
FORECAST AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER SOMEWHAT TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT
TRENDS.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 PM CDT TUE MAY 27 2025
MOST OF WEDNESDAY WILL BE UNEVENTFUL AS WE REMAIN IN BETWEEN
DISTURBANCES. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL
RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL RETURN BY LATE IN THE DAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF EASTERN LONGWAVE TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
FORCES ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK SOUTHEAST. STORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO
THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEAST, BUT AT THIS TIME
RAINFALL AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK EXCESSIVE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS
TO BE LIMITED.
ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SHAPING UP FRIDAY AND MOST OF
SATURDAY, BUT YET ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS LEADING TO ANOTHER POTENTIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. THE UNCERTAINTY LIES IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THIS
WAVE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE KEPT LOW FOR THE TIME BEING. PATTERN
BEGINS TO SHIFT TO A WARMER ONE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DEEP
WESTERN TROUGH AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF THE MAIN
TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DETERIORATE TONIGHT ACROSS E OK
AND NW AR, WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS EXPECTED LATE OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOCATIONS ACROSS NW AR MAY SEE A
WINDOW OF LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 10-14Z, AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO
GROUPS FOR THE MOST FAVORED SITES. CEILINGS ARE LESS CERTAIN
ACROSS E OK SITES, AND CONDITIONS MAY FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND
MVFR... WITH A LOW CHANCE OF IFR BETWEEN 10-14Z. CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO IMPROVE TO VFR AREAWIDE BY LATE MORNING/ EARLY
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS NE OK SITES
DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT NOTABLE IMPACTS ARE
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 75 60 73 55 / 10 50 60 0
FSM 80 64 78 57 / 0 30 60 10
MLC 78 62 77 55 / 10 40 60 10
BVO 74 56 72 51 / 10 60 50 0
FYV 76 59 74 51 / 10 30 70 10
BYV 75 59 71 53 / 0 20 70 10
MKO 76 61 72 53 / 10 40 60 10
MIO 74 59 70 52 / 10 50 60 0
F10 76 61 73 53 / 10 40 60 10
HHW 79 63 78 58 / 30 30 50 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...43
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