204
FXUS64 KTSA 281756
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1256 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
- MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE IN A FEW SPOTS.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THIS WEEK.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS BEGINNING TO
BREAK APART ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS STILL HOVERING ABOVE. CLOUD COVER SHOULD
GRADUALLY TREND TOWARDS PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO
THE MID-UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES NEAR THE RED RIVER AND AR
RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A COUPLE OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS,
EMBEDDED IN THE OVERALL LONGER-WAVE TROUGH PATTERN, WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MID-LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. GLOBAL MODELS AND MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES CAMS KEEP THE
AREA DRY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE EXCEPTION COMING FROM
THE HRRR, WHICH SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. HAVE OPTED NOT TO ADD ANY MENTIONABLE POPS
THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM AT THIS TIME, BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
THE HRRR SOLUTION OUT WITH ITS RECENT RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OVER
THE LAST FEW HOURS. REGARDLESS, IMPACTS FROM THIS, IF VERIFIED,
ARE UNLIKELY. OTHERWISE, THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO REMAIN ON
TRACK.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
AN MCS IS EXPECTED TO FORM TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
AND TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS IT WEAKENS. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN OUR AREA LOOKS
RATHER LOW AS THE WEAKENING COMPLEX MOVES IN. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND BY THE MORNING ACTIVITY.
A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. A
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTH IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WARM, HUMID, AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SETS UP UNDER A SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PATTERN. RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE, BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
LOW-LEVEL CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT AND SCATTER-OUT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, INTO THIS EVENING AND MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL
PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OK LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BECAUSE INSTABILITY WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED OVER THE AREA, KEPT
THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. THESE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAY
CAUSE MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VSBYS, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
VFR PREVAILING WITH ANY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE
DOES SUGGEST WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILING DEVELOPING OR PUSHING INTO
THE REGION BY OR JUST BEFORE 12Z/7 AM CT THURSDAY MORNING AND
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL.
WIND DIRECTION WILL TREND MORE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
WESTERLY BY MID-LATE MORNING THURSDAY.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 76 61 72 55 / 0 60 60 10
FSM 79 63 77 56 / 0 20 60 10
MLC 78 63 77 56 / 0 40 60 10
BVO 75 56 72 51 / 10 80 50 0
FYV 74 58 72 51 / 0 30 80 10
BYV 74 58 72 52 / 0 20 80 10
MKO 76 61 74 53 / 0 40 70 10
MIO 73 58 69 52 / 10 60 70 0
F10 76 61 74 54 / 0 50 60 10
HHW 80 63 78 59 / 10 20 40 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...67
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