702
FXUS64 KTSA 281946
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
246 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
- MAINSTEM RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE IN A FEW SPOTS.
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE SATURDAY.
- WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK, WITH PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH BASE OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH ANCHORED
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST IS RESULTING IN A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL KS BACK INTO FAR
NORTHWEST OK THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN
AREAS NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER INTO THE EVENING. GENERALLY STABLE
AIRMASS OVER NE OK AND NW AR SHOULD KEEP ANY THUNDERSTORMS AT BAY
IN THE VERY NEAR TERM.
LATER TONIGHT OUR ATTENTION TURNS TO A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WAVE
MOVING SOUTH NEAR THE FRONT RANGE AS IT ROUNDS THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. EXPECTATION REMAINS THAT THIS WILL AID IN
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS,
POTENTIALLY GROWING INTO AN MCS THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD
OUR FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LESS FAVORABLE INSTABILITY
PROFILES, THIS COMPLEX WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES LATE
THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE ESE OVERNIGHT. BOTH THE
SEVER AND HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE RATHER LIMITED AS A
RESULT, AND CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 75.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
ABOVE MENTIONED STORM COMPLEX WILL RESULT IN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH POCKETS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON AND RESULTING IN A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST CENTRAL AR. SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY AND COULD FORCE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE EVENING.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S MOST PLACES, AND PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 40S NEAR KS
AND MO BORDERS. PLEASANT WEATHER FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY AS
WELL, HOWEVER AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IN NNW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF
THE AREA.
A SHIFT IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR WARMER AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. DRY LINE WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER
WESTERN OK/TX WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FAVORING ADDITIONAL STORM
CHANCES TO OUR WEST, AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO MOVE INTO
PARTS OF OUR AREA EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
LOW-LEVEL CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO LIFT AND SCATTER-OUT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, INTO THIS EVENING AND MUCH OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL
PUSH INTO NORTHEAST OK LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
BECAUSE INSTABILITY WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED OVER THE AREA, KEPT
THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. THESE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAY
CAUSE MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VSBYS, BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
VFR PREVAILING WITH ANY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE
DOES SUGGEST WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILING DEVELOPING OR PUSHING INTO
THE REGION BY OR JUST BEFORE 12Z/7 AM CT THURSDAY MORNING AND
PERSISTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE MORNING AS WELL.
WIND DIRECTION WILL TREND MORE FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO
WESTERLY BY MID-LATE MORNING THURSDAY.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 61 73 54 79 / 60 50 0 0
FSM 63 81 57 80 / 10 70 10 0
MLC 63 78 56 79 / 20 50 20 0
BVO 57 71 51 79 / 80 60 0 0
FYV 58 76 52 76 / 20 80 10 0
BYV 58 73 53 74 / 20 80 10 0
MKO 60 75 54 76 / 30 60 10 0
MIO 58 71 52 76 / 60 80 0 0
F10 61 75 54 77 / 30 60 10 0
HHW 63 79 59 79 / 10 30 20 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14
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