622
FXUS64 KTSA 290215
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
915 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE SATURDAY.
- WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK, WITH PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS A MID LEVEL
WAVE ROUNDS THE BACKSIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PLANTED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECTATION REMAINS THAT STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GROW UPSCALE INTO A CONVECTIVE LINE OR
CLUSTER AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES ASCENT ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE. THIS MCS IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND
APPROACH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT. INITIALLY STORMS WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER, A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY, PRIMARILY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75, IN PLACE. THEREFORE, THE COMPLEX WILL LIKELY BE IN A
WEAKENING STATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. STILL, SOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA
LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS AS
WELL. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT WILL CONSIST OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS
THE REGION.
FOR THE UPDATE TONIGHT, ADJUSTED THE POPS SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE... BUT OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST IS HANDLING
THE SITUATION WELL.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
ABOVE MENTIONED STORM COMPLEX WILL RESULT IN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH POCKETS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON AND RESULTING IN A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST CENTRAL AR. SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY AND COULD FORCE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE EVENING.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S MOST PLACES, AND PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 40S NEAR KS
AND MO BORDERS. PLEASANT WEATHER FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY AS
WELL, HOWEVER AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IN NNW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF
THE AREA.
A SHIFT IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR WARMER AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. DRY LINE WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER
WESTERN OK/TX WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FAVORING ADDITIONAL STORM
CHANCES TO OUR WEST, AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO MOVE INTO
PARTS OF OUR AREA EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION, OUTSIDE OF ANY STORM ACTIVITY. A WEAKENING COMPLEX OF RAIN
AND STORMS IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO NE OK AFTER MIDNIGHT,
AND MAY CONTINUE INTO NW AR THURSDAY MORNING. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS
AND LOWER VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT IMPACT TERMINALS,
BUT CONFIDENCE ONLY MERITS A TEMPO GROUP AT THE NE OK SITES, AND A
PROB30 FOR THE NW AR SITES. MVFR CIGS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD NE OK
AND EVENTUALLY NW AR BEHIND A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY, WITH A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS AROUND AS WELL. STORM CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN ACROSS
SE OK INTO W-CENTRAL AR THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND PROB30 GROUPS WERE
USED AT KMLC AND KFSM FOR STORM POTENTIAL AT THOSE SITES.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 61 73 54 79 / 70 50 0 0
FSM 63 81 57 80 / 0 70 10 0
MLC 63 78 56 79 / 20 50 20 0
BVO 57 71 51 79 / 90 60 0 0
FYV 58 76 52 76 / 10 80 10 0
BYV 58 73 53 74 / 10 80 10 0
MKO 60 75 54 76 / 30 60 10 0
MIO 58 71 52 76 / 50 80 0 0
F10 61 75 54 77 / 40 60 10 0
HHW 63 79 59 79 / 0 30 20 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30
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