838
FXUS64 KTSA 290539
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1239 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
- RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATE SATURDAY.
- WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK, WITH PERIODIC
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 915 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS A MID LEVEL
WAVE ROUNDS THE BACKSIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH PLANTED OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECTATION REMAINS THAT STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND GROW UPSCALE INTO A CONVECTIVE LINE OR
CLUSTER AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES ASCENT ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE. THIS MCS IS PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND
APPROACH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT. INITIALLY STORMS WILL
HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER, A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXISTS OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY, PRIMARILY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75, IN PLACE. THEREFORE, THE COMPLEX WILL LIKELY BE IN A
WEAKENING STATE AS IT MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY
INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THURSDAY MORNING. STILL, SOME MARGINALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF TULSA
LATER TONIGHT WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN SOME AREAS AS
WELL. OTHERWISE, TONIGHT WILL CONSIST OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER
AND TEMPERATURES HOLDING MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S ACROSS
THE REGION.
FOR THE UPDATE TONIGHT, ADJUSTED THE POPS SLIGHTLY TO ALIGN WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE... BUT OTHERWISE THE GOING FORECAST IS HANDLING
THE SITUATION WELL.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT WED MAY 28 2025
ABOVE MENTIONED STORM COMPLEX WILL RESULT IN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON THIS BOUNDARY
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH POCKETS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY DEVELOPING IN
THE AFTERNOON AND RESULTING IN A LIMITED SEVERE THREAT PRIMARILY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST CENTRAL AR. SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY PUSH THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY AND COULD FORCE
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE EVENING.
DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S MOST PLACES, AND PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 40S NEAR KS
AND MO BORDERS. PLEASANT WEATHER FRIDAY AND MOST OF SATURDAY AS
WELL, HOWEVER AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE IN NNW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF
THE AREA.
A SHIFT IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO FAVOR WARMER AND
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. DRY LINE WILL BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER
WESTERN OK/TX WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FAVORING ADDITIONAL STORM
CHANCES TO OUR WEST, AND SOME POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO MOVE INTO
PARTS OF OUR AREA EACH DAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AS OF 05Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL,
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VSBYS/ CIGS AS THIS
COMPLEX IMPACTS E OK SITES AND PERHAPS NW AR SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AREAWIDE, BEFORE MVFR CIGS SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FOLLOWING CONVECTION THIS MORNING. THERE IS LOW-MEDIUM POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS THIS MORNING/ AFTERNOON FOR
BVO/FYV/XNA/ROG AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO/ PROB30 GROUPS
ACCORDINGLY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING AREAWIDE, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MLC AND FSM. LOW CEILINGS MAY TEND TO LINGER
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR NW AR SITES, BUT CIGS ARE
FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 73 54 79 58 / 50 0 0 0
FSM 81 57 80 57 / 70 10 0 0
MLC 78 56 79 56 / 50 20 0 0
BVO 71 51 79 54 / 60 0 0 0
FYV 76 52 76 53 / 80 10 0 0
BYV 73 53 74 54 / 80 10 0 0
MKO 75 54 76 54 / 60 10 0 0
MIO 71 52 76 54 / 80 0 0 0
F10 75 54 77 55 / 60 10 0 0
HHW 79 59 79 56 / 30 20 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...43
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