539
FXUS64 KTSA 290950
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
450 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY.
- WARMING TREND BEGINS FRIDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY EARLY
THIS MORNING AS THEY MOVED INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST THIS MONING. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND
AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA,
AND AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S IN FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA TO THE LOWER 80S NEAR THE RED RIVER.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
COMMENCE FRIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, SO HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS IN LINE WITH THE NBM, BUT THEY ARE NON-ZERO.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN
LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH, BUT
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN OUR AREA.
THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES MAY THEN COOL DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES,
BUT THIS IS A BIG SHIFT FROM 24 HOURS AGO, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA AS OF 05Z. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STILL,
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VSBYS/ CIGS AS THIS
COMPLEX IMPACTS E OK SITES AND PERHAPS NW AR SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AREAWIDE, BEFORE MVFR CIGS SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FOLLOWING CONVECTION THIS MORNING. THERE IS LOW-MEDIUM POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS THIS MORNING/ AFTERNOON FOR
BVO/FYV/XNA/ROG AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO/ PROB30 GROUPS
ACCORDINGLY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING AREAWIDE, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR MLC AND FSM. LOW CEILINGS MAY TEND TO LINGER
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR NW AR SITES, BUT CIGS ARE
FORECAST TO IMPROVE TO VFR ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 73 55 79 56 / 60 10 0 0
FSM 79 58 80 56 / 50 40 0 0
MLC 78 57 79 55 / 50 40 0 0
BVO 71 50 79 53 / 70 10 0 0
FYV 74 51 76 50 / 70 30 0 0
BYV 74 53 75 53 / 80 30 0 0
MKO 75 54 79 53 / 60 20 0 0
MIO 69 51 77 53 / 90 10 0 0
F10 74 54 79 54 / 60 20 0 0
HHW 81 60 79 55 / 20 40 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...43
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