661
FXUS64 KTSA 291555
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1055 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY.
- WARMING TREND BEGINS FRIDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TODAY )
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
AT MID MORNING A MID LEVEL IMPULSE, WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING, WAS EXITING
INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS
POSITIONED FROM SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WAS ONGOING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, WHILE
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WERE COMMON ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA. BOTH SURFACE AND ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH
THE GREATER INSTABILITY NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. THE
INTERACTION OF THE FRONT AND INSTABILITY WILL CREATE SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. LATEST INDICATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW STORM DEVELOPMENT
BEING MORE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE INTO THIS EVENING WITH THE GREATER
POTENTIAL OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35-45KT WILL ALLOW FOR A LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT.
AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA, NORTHERLY WINDS
COMBINED ONGOING CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING ALL
THAT MUCH NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.
MEANWHILE, TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S. FOR THE MORNING UPDATE, HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND ALSO ADDED MINOR
UPDATES TO THE HOURLY NEAR TERM TEMP/DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
LATEST TRENDS/OBS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST SEEM TO BE HANDLING
WELL AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN
COMMENCE FRIDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO NEAR THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
RAIN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, SO HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS IN LINE WITH THE NBM, BUT THEY ARE NON-ZERO.
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL DEVELOP NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO THE PLAINS. THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN
LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS TROUGH, BUT
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE
MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN OUR AREA.
THE LATEST DATA SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES MAY THEN COOL DURING THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH CONTINUING RAIN CHANCES,
BUT THIS IS A BIG SHIFT FROM 24 HOURS AGO, SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
DECAYING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH E OK AND NW AR THIS
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS N OK AND NW
AR THIS MORNING/ EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH BVO MOST LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR, BUT CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS
FOR ANY ONE LOCATION REMAIN LOW, SO HAVE MAINTAINED PROB30 GROUPS
FOR MLC AND FSM. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ALL LOCATIONS EVENTUALLY IMPROVING
TO VFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 73 55 79 56 / 50 10 0 0
FSM 79 58 80 56 / 50 40 0 0
MLC 78 57 79 55 / 50 40 0 0
BVO 71 50 79 53 / 70 10 0 0
FYV 74 51 76 50 / 70 30 0 0
BYV 74 53 75 53 / 80 30 0 0
MKO 75 54 79 53 / 60 20 0 0
MIO 69 51 77 53 / 90 10 0 0
F10 74 54 79 54 / 50 20 0 0
HHW 81 60 79 55 / 30 40 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...43
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