772
FXUS64 KTSA 291945
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
245 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TODAY.
- WARMING TREND BEGINS FRIDAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
SURFACE COLD FRONT MAKING STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR I-44. AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT
CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE IN THE 1500-2500 RANGE WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE MID/UPPER 60S. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO EVENTUALLY
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY THIS EVENING, WITH A LOW-END THREAT OF
HAIL AND WIND WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED CELLS. AN UPTICK IN
COVERAGE OF MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AS CONVECTION MOVES ESE OFF THE HIGH PLAINS
WITHING A FRONTAL ZONE ALOFT.
BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT, ALMOST CHILLY CONDITIONS BY LATE MAY
STANDARDS WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S AND A 10-15 MPH NORTH
WIND. EXPECT TO SEE GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE 50S IN MOST OF THE AREA, WITH SOME UPPER 40S
POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE KS AND MO BORDERS IF ENOUGH CLEARING
OCCURS.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
DRY CONDITIONS WITH CONSIDERABLY MORE SUN THAT WE HAVE SEEN
RECENTLY ARE IN STORE SATURDAY, WITH WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LOW DEW POINTS MAKING FOR A PLEASANT
LATE SPRING DAY. A NOTABLE WARMING TREND BEGINS SATURDAY WITH AT
LEAST MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN. A COMPACT SHORTWAVE IN
NNW FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS BY LATE SATURDAY. WHILE THE NBM CONTINUES TO KEEP POPS
BELOW 15% THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS, A NUMBER OF GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW AT LEAST SOME QPF WITH THIS FEATURE SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS PLUS A TENDENCY FOR SYSTEMS LIKE THIS TO
OVERACHIEVE, WILL KEEP AT LEAST A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH THE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.
ASSUMING THIS WAVE CLEARS THE AREA IN TIME, SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND
WARM AHEAD OF AN UNSETTLED SOUTHWEST PATTERN DEVELOPING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BY MONDAY EXPECT TO SEE STORMS DEVELOP WELL TO OUR
WEST, POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO EASTERN OK LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY REMAINS THE PERIOD OF INTEREST FOR OUR AREA WITH A
SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING POSSIBLE UPTICK
IN SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. UNSETTLED PATTERN LOOKS MORE LIKELY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL, WITH AT LEAST PERIODIC
THREATS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT THU MAY 29 2025
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MAINLY MVFR BY MID AFTERNOON,
WHILE VFR CEILINGS REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES REMAIN FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. GREATER POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND WILL CONTINUE PROB30 GROUPS
FOR TIMING. WITHIN ANY CONVECTION, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT BACK TO VFR
OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING WITH CEILINGS SCATTERING OVER
OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT WITH THE PASSING OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF AXIS. MVFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO HOLD OVER FAR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE TROF AXIS MOVES
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY,
SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD START OUT WESTERLY AND BECOME NORTHWEST/NORTHERLY THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 55 78 57 85 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 58 80 57 85 / 30 0 0 0
MLC 58 78 56 84 / 30 0 0 0
BVO 51 78 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 53 76 53 82 / 20 0 0 0
BYV 53 74 53 81 / 20 0 0 0
MKO 54 76 55 81 / 20 0 0 0
MIO 51 76 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
F10 55 77 55 83 / 20 0 0 0
HHW 61 78 56 82 / 50 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...20
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