636
FXUS64 KTSA 301056
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
556 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
- FOG POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH MID MORNING.
- WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES, INCLUDING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAIN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS,
WITH A COOL FRONT SINKING FARTHER SOUTHWARD, TAKING ANY STORM
CHANCES WITH IT. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE RED RIVER SHOULD
PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK. FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED THIS
MORNING JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN PARTS
OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE HIGH AND
THE RECENT RAINFALL, EXPECT PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
NORTH OF I-40 INTO MID MORNING, WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
THEREAFTER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT STILL A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT WILL BE ON DECK FOR THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE 50S AREAWIDE TO START THE WEEKEND. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FINALLY MAKE A RETURN SATURDAY AS WINDS TURN TO A
MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION, ALBEIT AT FAIRLY LIGHT SPEEDS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPS
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR IN A FEW SPOTS GIVEN PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FORECAST NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRIEFLY TO
OPEN THE WORK WEEK, KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARM AND CONDITIONS DRY.
HOWEVER, SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAKE A QUICK RETURN BY
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE REGION AND MOISTURE INCREASES IN RESPONSE. MODEST INSTABILITY
WILL SUPPORT A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH
ANY PREDAWN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER REMAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH STORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
CURRENTLY LOOK TO BE THE FAVORED THREATS, IN ADDITION TO HEAVY
RAIN. A FLOOD WATCH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND FORECAST AMOUNTS. THE OVERALL PATTERN
WILL REMAIN ACTIVE INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE NEXT WORK
WEEK WITH THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TROUGHING CONTINUING TO A
LARGE DEGREE. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASING CONCERN FOR
FLOODING, WITH THE DETAILS OF THIS THREAT BECOMING CLEARER AS THAT
TIME APPROACHES. FOR NOW, PROBABILISTIC DATA FROM THE LATEST NBM
INDICATES WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS DURING
THE 72 HOUR PERIOD ENDING 7 AM NEXT FRIDAY, WITH 90TH PERCENTILE
VALUES FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
PATCHY DENSE FOG ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE OK AND NW AR IS
PRODUCING IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WHICH WILL PERSIST IN VARIABLE
FASHION THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 57 85 63 82 / 0 0 30 10
FSM 57 85 62 84 / 0 0 20 10
MLC 56 84 63 82 / 0 0 30 10
BVO 52 86 60 82 / 0 10 20 0
FYV 52 82 59 82 / 0 0 20 10
BYV 52 81 60 82 / 0 0 20 10
MKO 55 82 61 82 / 0 0 30 10
MIO 52 82 60 82 / 0 10 20 0
F10 55 83 62 80 / 0 0 40 10
HHW 57 82 63 80 / 0 0 20 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR OKZ057-058-
062-063-068-069.
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ARZ001-002-
010-011-019-020.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...07
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