655
FXUS64 KTSA 302310
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIALS RETURN SATURDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES, INCLUDING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAIN.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR, LIGHT WIND
AND COOL CONDITIONS. FORECAST LOWS IN THE 50S SHOULD BE COMMON
OVER THE CWA.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WIND COMPONENT
OVER THE CWA. IN RESPONSE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK
INTO THE 80S AHEAD OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS. LATEST INDICATIONS HAS THIS WAVE REACHING THE
CWA LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
STARTING AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WARMER
CONDITIONS, INCREASING INSTABILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL AID IN
SEVERE POTENTIALS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS. OVERNIGHT, INSTABILITY AND THUS SEVERE POTENTIALS
ARE PROGGED TO WEAKEN WITH THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD
EXIT BY 12Z SUNDAY, THOUGH WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE
RED RIVER FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AND EXITS DURING THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
RETURNS MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST, WHICH WILL
HELP TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S. THE RETURN MOISTURE
FLOW WILL ALSO HELP FUEL THE STORM CHANCES DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
MONDAY NIGHT.
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. CONTINUED MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WAVE TO WORK WITH
WILL INCREASE STORM AND SEVERE POTENTIALS AGAIN FOR THE CWA. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER BECOME POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE CWA FOR
WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE SURFACE AND OR AN
ELEVATED PORTION OF THE FRONT HOLDS OVER/NEAR THE CWA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SETS
UP FOR WEDNESDAY WILL HELP DETERMINE SEVERE POTENTIALS. CONDITIONS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO CHANGE MUCH INTO NEXT THURSDAY WITH THE
WAVE MOVING THROUGH FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS, WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
BESIDES THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT NEXT WEEK, A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
ALSO EXISTS OVER THE REGION. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS TO HAVE AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO
FEED OFF OF. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO SEVERAL INCHES
ARE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WHICH ON TOP OF RECENT
RAINS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD AS WELL AS
RIVER/STREAM FLOOD CONCERNS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST CONDITIONS
AS PRECIP AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS ARE UPDATED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT MAINLY FOR NW AR
SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT, SWITCHING FROM NORTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE MORNING TOMORROW.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS NE OK TOMORROW EVENING,
BUT BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE JUST OUTSIDE THIS TAF PERIOD AT THIS
TIME.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 78 55 87 62 / 0 0 10 60
FSM 80 57 84 64 / 0 0 0 50
MLC 79 56 84 63 / 0 0 0 60
BVO 78 52 86 59 / 0 0 20 50
FYV 76 52 80 59 / 0 0 0 50
BYV 74 52 80 60 / 0 0 0 40
MKO 76 55 84 62 / 0 0 0 60
MIO 76 52 83 59 / 0 0 10 40
F10 77 56 84 61 / 0 0 0 60
HHW 79 57 83 63 / 10 0 0 50
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...04
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