410
FXUS64 KTSA 310536
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1236 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, INCLUDING SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL,
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES, INCLUDING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAIN.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 803 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED THIS EVENING WAS TO ENCORPORATE SMOKE
INTO THE SKY COVER GRIDS THRU SATURDAY. SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN
CENTRAL CANADA IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE DROPPING SOUTH OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS IN THE MORE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. IN FACT, THE
SMOKE IS ALREADY EVIDENT ON THE NORTHERLY HORIZON AS SUNSET
APPROACHES AND WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION THRU SATURDAY. THE NEAR-
SURFACE DENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT VSBYS, BUT IT WILL STILL BE NOTICEABLE AND MAY
EVEN TAKE A DEGREE OR TWO OFF OF TOMORROW'S HIGH TEMPS.
DENSE FOG WAS OBSERVED OVER IN THE OZARKS AND FAR EASTERN OK LAST
NIGHT, FOLLOWING A COOLER AND CLOUDIER DAY. IT WAS A WARMER AND
SUNNIER DAY TODAY, LESSENING THE POTENTIAL FOR A REPEAT OF LAST
NIGHT. NEVERTHELESS, THERE IS A SIGNAL FOR LIGHT FOG OVER IN THAT
SAME GENERAL AREA AND HAVE ELECTED TO INSERT A PATCHY FOG MENTION.
ASIDE FROM THE SMOKE AND POTENTIAL LIGHT FOG, THE FORECAST
REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER
DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS.
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON THE LOWER LIMB OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE,
WITH ONLY A COUPLE MINOR TWEAKS DONE.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR ONE MORE NIGHT OF MOSTLY CLEAR, LIGHT WIND
AND COOL CONDITIONS. FORECAST LOWS IN THE 50S SHOULD BE COMMON
OVER THE CWA.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BEGINS TO SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
SATURDAY ALLOWING FOR MORE OF A WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY WIND COMPONENT
OVER THE CWA. IN RESPONSE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK
INTO THE 80S AHEAD OF A COMPACT SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PLAINS. LATEST INDICATIONS HAS THIS WAVE REACHING THE
CWA LATE SATURDAY EVENING WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
STARTING AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SPREADING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH THE WARMER
CONDITIONS, INCREASING INSTABILITY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL AID IN
SEVERE POTENTIALS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREATS. OVERNIGHT, INSTABILITY AND THUS SEVERE POTENTIALS
ARE PROGGED TO WEAKEN WITH THE GREATER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT. MAJORITY OF THIS PRECIP SHOULD
EXIT BY 12Z SUNDAY, THOUGH WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE NEAR THE
RED RIVER FOR ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY AND EXITS DURING THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
RETURNS MONDAY AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST, WHICH WILL
HELP TO WARM TEMPS INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S. THE RETURN MOISTURE
FLOW WILL ALSO HELP FUEL THE STORM CHANCES DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST
MONDAY NIGHT.
THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. CONTINUED MOISTURE RETURN ALONG WITH BOTH SURFACE AND
ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS WAVE TO WORK WITH
WILL INCREASE STORM AND SEVERE POTENTIALS AGAIN FOR THE CWA. ALL
MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER BECOME POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE CWA FOR
WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THE SURFACE AND OR AN
ELEVATED PORTION OF THE FRONT HOLDS OVER/NEAR THE CWA WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SETS
UP FOR WEDNESDAY WILL HELP DETERMINE SEVERE POTENTIALS. CONDITIONS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO CHANGE MUCH INTO NEXT THURSDAY WITH THE
WAVE MOVING THROUGH FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE THURSDAY NIGHT. THUS, WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
BESIDES THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT NEXT WEEK, A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
ALSO EXISTS OVER THE REGION. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS TO HAVE AMPLE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO
FEED OFF OF. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO SEVERAL INCHES
ARE FORECAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WHICH ON TOP OF RECENT
RAINS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THE FLASH FLOOD AS WELL AS
RIVER/STREAM FLOOD CONCERNS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST CONDITIONS
AS PRECIP AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS ARE UPDATED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH 01/00Z, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME PATCHY FOG LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS LATER THIS MORNING. THE FOG THIS MORNING IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE AS WIDESPREAD OR AS DENSE AS FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THAT AREA, BUT
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE WHERE IT FORMS (MOST LIKELY SITE
LOOKS TO BE FYV, AT THIS TIME). TSRA CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE NRN
SITES AFTER 01/00Z, AS A SHORT WAVE TRANSLATES SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AREA. FOR NOW, INCLUDED PROB30 GROUPS IN NERN OK AND NWRN AR SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 87 62 83 64 / 10 60 0 0
FSM 84 64 84 64 / 0 50 10 0
MLC 84 63 82 64 / 0 60 10 0
BVO 86 59 83 60 / 20 50 0 0
FYV 80 59 82 60 / 0 50 10 0
BYV 80 60 82 61 / 0 40 10 0
MKO 84 62 82 63 / 0 60 10 0
MIO 83 59 83 62 / 10 40 0 0
F10 84 61 82 63 / 0 60 10 0
HHW 83 63 81 64 / 0 50 20 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...69
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