450
FXUS64 KTSA 311107
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
607 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES, INCLUDING SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL,
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER NEXT WEEK, WITH DAILY SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES, INCLUDING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAIN.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ATOP THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING
BUT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. WARMER CONDITIONS, WITH
A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, REMAIN EXPECTED
TODAY, AIDED BY WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
DEPARTING HIGH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO AREAS
NORTH AND WEST OF I-44 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON, IN RESPONSE TO THE
POTENT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT ON TRACK TO
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL EXPAND FURTHER THROUGH
THE EVENING AND SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT, LIKELY EXITING
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL UP TO
PERHAPS HALF DOLLAR SIZE AND DAMAGING WIND, WITH ONLY A VERY LOW
TORNADO THREAT.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM LATE SUNDAY
AND INTO MONDAY, LEADING TO A COUPLE OF SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOONS
AND LARGELY DRY WEATHER. FORECAST HIGHS BOTH DAYS REFLECT VALUES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE THOSE OFFERED BY THE NBM GIVEN TRENDS FROM
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND THE FACT THAT WE ARE COMING OUT OF A
COOLER PERIOD, LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR A LOW BIAS.
THE RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SETTING UP IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET REMAINS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY, LEADING TO
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHOULD LINGER INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON TUESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME TOWARD MIDDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE PLAINS AND
A FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. WITH MORE THAN SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE, SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS
EXPECTED, ALONG WITH A HEAVY RAIN THREAT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AND
BECOME A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AND
ALTHOUGH SOME SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY EXTEND INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS INTO WEDNESDAY, THE MAIN THREAT
SHOULD SHIFT TO HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING INTO LATE WEEK.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR DAILY MAXIMA
CLIMATOLOGICALLY, LEADING TO EFFICIENT RAINFALL, IN ADDITION TO
THE LINGERING FRONT LEADING TO POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING. THROUGH 7
AM FRIDAY, PROBABILISTIC NBM DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDESPREAD
72-HOUR AVERAGE 1 TO 3 INCH QPF AMOUNTS AND 90TH PERCENTILE 3 TO 7
INCH AMOUNTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT A FLOOD WATCH WILL
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT
WEEK GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF THE ABOVE METEOROLOGICAL REASONING
AND THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 AM CDT SAT MAY 31 2025
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
TERRAIN OF NWRN AR AND FAR ERN OK. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CHANCE
THAT SOME OF THIS IMPACTS NWRN AR SITES WITH IFR/MVFR VISIBILITIES,
ESPECIALLY FYV/ROG. ANY IMPACTS SHOULD END WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF
THE BEGINNING OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
AREAWIDE FROM MID MORNING THROUGH AT LEAST 01/00Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER SRN KS THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO ERN
OK AND NWRN AR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT. LATEST GUIDANCE IS A
LITTLE SLOWER ON THE TIMING OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO OUR AREA, AND HAVE
THUS PUSHED THE PROB30 GROUPS IN THE FORECASTS A LITTLE LATER. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THIS TIMING, TEMPO GROUPS ARE NOT WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 86 63 85 64 / 10 60 0 0
FSM 85 64 85 64 / 0 40 10 0
MLC 85 62 85 64 / 0 60 10 0
BVO 86 60 85 60 / 20 50 0 0
FYV 82 61 83 60 / 0 50 10 0
BYV 82 60 83 61 / 0 50 10 0
MKO 83 62 82 63 / 0 60 10 0
MIO 83 61 85 62 / 10 50 0 0
F10 84 63 83 63 / 0 60 10 0
HHW 83 62 83 64 / 0 40 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...69
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