375
FXUS64 KTSA 250235
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
935 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY
HEAT INDICES OF 95-105 F ACROSS THE AREA.
- DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY MUCH OF
THIS WEEK.
- STORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 935 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
A COUPLE OF SHOWERS LINGERED ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AT MID EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE
TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH THE CONTINUED LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. OTHERWISE, TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
REMAINED COMMON ACROSS THE CWA WITH ONGOING LIGHT SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, THE CWA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST U.S. IN
RESPONSE, WARM CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS BETWEEN EAST AND SOUTH
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CWA AGAIN TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS CLOSE TO THIS
MORNINGS LOWS IN THE 70S ARE ANTICIPATED. THIS IS REFLECTED WITHIN
THE ONGOING FORECAST, AND FOR THE EVENING UPDATE HAVE ONLY ADDED
MINOR TWEAKS ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN CONSISTENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. MORE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. AFTER THAT, THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND
FLATTEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHICH WILL ALLOW SOME
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BECOME POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEVERAL WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN STATE COULD PUSH A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
THE REGION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS
OCCURS, THIS WOULD PROVIDE MORE OF A FOCUS FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
STORM DEVELOPMENT, BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH AT THIS
TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY RUN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES RANGING FROM 95 TO 105 ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ANY EXCEPTION WOULD BE WITH ANY SHOWER/STORM THAT MOVES
OVER A LOCATION DURING THE AFTERNOON COULD PROVIDE A SHORT TERM
RELIEF.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT TUE JUN 24 2025
ANY LINGERING ONGOING SHOWERS SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AFTER
SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BECOME MAINLY FEW HIGH CLOUDS THIS EVENING AND
REMAIN COMMON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY, SCATTERED MID CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP TAFS DRY AT THIS TIME DUE
TO LIMITED COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY OF IMPACTING ANY ONE TERMINAL.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KFSM WHERE AN EASTERLY WIND DEVELOPS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT/MORNING PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 75 92 75 92 / 0 10 0 10
FSM 74 95 74 94 / 20 20 0 10
MLC 73 91 72 91 / 0 10 0 10
BVO 72 92 72 92 / 0 10 0 10
FYV 72 92 72 91 / 20 20 0 10
BYV 71 91 71 91 / 20 20 0 10
MKO 73 90 72 90 / 0 10 0 10
MIO 72 90 73 91 / 0 10 0 10
F10 73 90 72 90 / 0 10 0 10
HHW 73 90 72 90 / 0 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20
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