083
FXUS64 KTSA 251543
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1043 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY
HEAT INDICES OF 95-105 F ACROSS THE AREA.
- DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY MUCH OF
THIS WEEK.
- STORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WITH SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CWA. AREA REMAINS ON THE EDGE OF SUMMERTIME
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. ISOLATED,
DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-44 THIS AFTERNOON IN
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROMOTE
STRONG DOWNDRAFTS WITH MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES AS SOME LOCATIONS YESTERDAY EXCEEDED FORECAST
VALUES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
CONDITIONS TODAY WILL LARGELY MIMIC WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL YIELD HI IN THE 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES IN MOST LOCATIONS. ISOLATED, LARGELY TERRAIN-
DRIVEN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN, PERHAPS WITH SLIGHTLY
GREATER COVERAGE AND A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST. AGAIN THOUGH,
MOST LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY, AND ANY STORMS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
SUBTLE PATTERN SHIFT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FOCUS STORM CHANCES
MORE TOWARD AREAS NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER AS SOME FLATTENING OF THE
RIDGE OCCURS. THIS MAY ALLOW SOME INFLUENCE OF THE LARGE PLUME OF
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS TO PUSH FARTHER
SOUTHEAST. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SATES MAY PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR REGION
WITH THE NET RESULT BEING HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES.
TEMPERATURE-WISE, CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, POSSIBLY TRENDING UP SLIGHTLY THIS WEEKEND BUT REMAINING
BELOW HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS IN ALL LIKELIHOOD. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
BACKDOOR FRONT MAY COOL THINGS DOWN A TAD NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
GUIDANCE CAME IN A BIT GUSTIER WITH THE SFC WINDS ACROSS NE OK, SO
GUSTS WERE ADDED TO THOSE TAFS THRU THE DAY. ASIDE FROM THIS,
THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. SCT CU DURING THE
DAY WITH PRETTY ISOLATED STORM CHANCES THAT ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE TAFS.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 92 74 91 75 / 10 0 10 10
FSM 95 74 94 74 / 20 10 10 0
MLC 90 72 91 73 / 20 10 10 0
BVO 91 72 91 71 / 10 0 10 10
FYV 91 72 91 72 / 20 0 10 0
BYV 92 72 91 72 / 20 0 10 0
MKO 90 72 90 73 / 20 0 10 0
MIO 90 72 90 72 / 20 10 10 10
F10 90 72 89 73 / 20 10 10 0
HHW 89 72 90 73 / 20 10 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30
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