674
FXUS64 KTSA 261048
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
548 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HEAT INDICES OF 95-105 F ACROSS THE AREA.
- DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY MUCH OF
THIS WEEK.
- STORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
LARGE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS WITH A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE ALSO IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY.
BOTH ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE TO THE EAST LATER TODAY AS THE
MID LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO VEER WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE TO
THE NORTH. STORM CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD MORE TOWARD
NORTHEAST OK LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A RESULT. AN
ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE IN THE TERRAIN AS WELL,
BUT COVERAGE APPEARS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN A SIMILAR RANGE TO WHAT HAS BEEN OBSERVED OF LATE.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
THE ABOVE MENTIONED MOISTURE PLUME/FRONTAL ZONE IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN ORIENTED TOWARD NORTHEAST OK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
POTENTIAL EXPANSION OF PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARD
I-40 CORRIDOR AND INTO NORTHWEST AR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMS.
THE GENERAL TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS A STRONGER WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS, PUSHING A FRONT TOWARD THE REGION AS
THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE EAST WEAKENS. WHILE A SIGNIFICANT FRONT
PASSAGE ISN'T LIKELY, THERE SHOULD BE AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND A RESULTANT DOWN TRENDS IN
TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
VFR TAFS WILL PREVAIL. THE LATEST CAMS SUGGEST INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO MOVE INTO NE OK AFT 00Z WITH A GRADUAL
WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE INTO THE REGION. HAVE ELECTED TO DO A
PROB30 FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING FOR NE OK TAFS. GUIDANCE WAS
MORE GUSTY WITH THE SFC WINDS ACROSS NW AR SO HAVE INCLUDED GUST
MENTION AT ALL FAR NW AR SITES, TO GO ALONG WITH NE OK SITES.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 91 75 90 75 / 20 20 40 10
FSM 94 74 93 75 / 10 10 20 10
MLC 91 73 91 74 / 10 10 20 10
BVO 90 71 89 71 / 20 30 40 20
FYV 91 72 89 72 / 10 10 30 10
BYV 91 72 88 72 / 10 10 30 10
MKO 89 73 89 73 / 10 10 30 10
MIO 90 71 88 72 / 10 20 40 20
F10 89 73 90 73 / 10 10 30 10
HHW 89 72 90 73 / 10 0 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30
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