873
FXUS64 KTSA 270232
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
932 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
- LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HEAT INDICES OF 95-105 F ACROSS THE AREA.
- DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY MUCH OF
THIS WEEK. STORM COVERAGE INCREASES FRIDAY AND AGAIN LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 932 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS CONTINUED TO SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO/ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS OF MID EVENING AHEAD OF
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS/WIND SHIFT SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH INCREASING CIN
COMBINED WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS WEAKENED THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIALS AS LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IN RESPONSE,
SEVERE POTENTIALS HAVE ALSO WEAKENED THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA INTO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN FORECAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH LESSER POTENTIAL INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE REGION. THE GREATER THUNDER CHANCES
EXIST OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, WHERE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM
ONGOING STORMS IN SOUTHERN KANSAS COULD SAG INTO THE CWA.
ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM FOR
STRONG WINDS REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD AGAIN REMAIN IN THE 70S ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE CWA DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TRANSPORTING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. FOR THE EVENING UPDATE, HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS BASED ON THE MENTIONED ABOVE AND TWEAKED HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT
TRENDS TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST SEEM TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY SLIDES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW WHILE
REMNANT TROUGHING REMAINS ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE HAS WEAKENED.
A BROADER EXPANSE OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AND
EXPECTATION IS SHOWER AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY
STEADILY EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A DRIFT TO
THE EAST AND SOUTH. ANY STRONGER STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS. HEAVY DOWNPOURS SHOULD BE EXPECTED WITH THE SLOW
STORM MOTIONS.
STORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON SATURDAY BUT OVERALL LESSER COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER GLANCING INFLUENCE FROM A PASSING WAVE ALOFT IS
LIKELY TO INCREASE SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
OVERALL TEMPS AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE MINDFUL OF
LIGHTNING SAFETY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 607 PM CDT THU JUN 26 2025
POTENTIAL ON STATION THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF BVO/TUL/RVS ARE
SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THESE 3 TERMINALS, WITH A LOW BUT
MENTIONABLE CHANCE OF IMPACTS DURING THE FIRST 4 TO 6 HOURS. WHILE
THIS ACTIVITY MAY FESTER SOME, IT SHOULD COME DOWN IN INTENSITY.
THE NEXT BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL BE THE LAST
4 HOURS OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD, WITH MLC AND THE W AR SITES
HAVING MENTIONABLE POTENTIAL AT THIS POINT AS WELL. WILL INCLUDE
PROB30 GROUPS FOR THIS ACTIVITY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO MAIN TIME
FRAMES, A LOWER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST BUT WILL NOT
INCLUDE A MENTION AT THIS TIME. WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE LESS
PREVALENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON THAN TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 74 91 74 91 / 40 40 10 20
FSM 74 92 73 94 / 10 40 10 20
MLC 73 91 74 93 / 20 40 10 20
BVO 72 90 71 91 / 40 40 20 20
FYV 72 88 72 89 / 10 40 10 30
BYV 72 88 71 89 / 10 40 10 40
MKO 73 89 73 91 / 20 40 10 20
MIO 72 87 72 89 / 30 40 20 30
F10 73 89 72 91 / 30 40 10 20
HHW 72 90 73 91 / 10 20 10 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22
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