226
FXUS64 KTSA 271743
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1243 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH
HEAT INDICES OF 95-102 F ACROSS THE AREA.
- DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 954 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND WEAK BOUNDARY ARE IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN NE OK. LOW TO
MEDIUM RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL EXPAND THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A VORT MAX PIVOTS INTO E OK, COINCIDING WITH DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE, SEVERE WEATHER IS
GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED, BUT A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WERE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF STORMS LIKELY TO BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S, WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEARING THE CENTURY
MARK IN SOME PLACES.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA, DAILY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND MAY ENHANCE STORM CHANCES FOR A COUPLE DAYS.
OVERALL, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT VARY MUCH, AND WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
FROM 95 TO 102 DEGREES WILL ALSO BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
PERIODIC SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO
IMPACT E OK AND NW AR THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR ALL SITES
OUTSIDE OF ANY DIRECT THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS. STORMS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS, WITH LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS.
PROB30S HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED IF ANY STRONGER CELL APPEARS MORE
LIKELY TO DIRECTLY AFFECT ANY SITE. A LULL IN PRECIP IS POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP TOMORROW MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 74 90 75 94 / 30 30 20 30
FSM 74 90 73 95 / 30 50 20 40
MLC 73 91 75 93 / 40 30 20 20
BVO 71 90 72 93 / 30 30 30 30
FYV 70 87 70 91 / 30 60 20 50
BYV 71 85 70 91 / 30 70 20 60
MKO 73 89 73 92 / 30 40 20 30
MIO 71 88 72 92 / 30 50 30 50
F10 72 90 72 92 / 30 30 20 20
HHW 72 90 72 92 / 20 20 20 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...43
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