589
FXUS64 KTSA 272309
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
609 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH
HEAT INDICES OF 95-102 F ACROSS THE AREA.
- DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND DOWNBURST WINDS THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
WELL INTO THE EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP
MOIST PROFILES. WET DOWNBURSTS ARE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL ALLOW
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. UNCERTAINTY REMAIN IN HOW LONG INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS STORMS CAN CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BUT THE MOIST
PROFILES WITH MINIMAL OVERNIGHT CAPPING MAY ALLOW STORMS TO
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
NEAR PERSISTENT PATTERN CONTINUES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUPPORTING
GOOD COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. EXPECT DAILY HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND PUSHING
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WOULD MARK A FOCUSED
CORRIDOR OF HIGHER SHOWERS AND STORMS AND MAY USHER IN SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS BUT THIS SCENARIO REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. THE PATTERN SHOWS NO LARGE CHANGES THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK AND THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE VALID TAF
PERIOD SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE W AR SITES AND MLC, WITH MORE
QUIESCENT CONDITIONS AT THE NE OK TERMINALS FOR AT LEAST A FEW
HOURS. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR A FURTHER EXPANSION IN THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, LIKELY IN THE PREDAWN HOURS,
THAT MAY IMPACT THE E OK SITES, SPREADING EASTWARD AFTER DAWN INTO
THE W AR TERMINALS. TEMPO AND PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN STRUCTURED
TEMPORALLY AROUND THIS GENERAL IDEA AT EACH SITE. SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON WILL BE MOST LIKELY AT THE NE OK SITES,
ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 20 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 73 91 76 94 / 40 40 20 20
FSM 74 91 74 95 / 20 50 10 40
MLC 73 91 75 93 / 20 30 0 20
BVO 70 90 72 93 / 30 40 30 30
FYV 71 87 72 91 / 30 60 20 50
BYV 71 86 71 91 / 30 60 20 60
MKO 73 88 74 92 / 30 50 10 30
MIO 71 88 72 92 / 30 50 30 50
F10 72 90 74 92 / 30 40 10 20
HHW 73 90 73 92 / 10 20 0 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22
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