750
FXUS64 KTSA 280528
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1228 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH
HEAT INDICES OF 95-102 F ACROSS THE AREA.
- DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND DOWNBURST WINDS THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 804 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
THE OVERALL THEME OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS INTACT, WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AND AT
LEAST SOME COVERAGE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE TO THE GOING
FORECAST HAS BEEN TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY USING THE SHORT-TERM
BLEND TO INDICATE A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN COVERAGE LATE EVENING
PRIOR TO ANOTHER LIKELY INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. STRONG STORMS,
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS 40 TO 50 MPH, WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 WHERE THE ENVIRONMENT IS
LARGELY UNDISTURBED AND DOWNDRAFT CAPE IS HIGHEST. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL REMAINS A CONCERN AS WELL.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
WELL INTO THE EVENING. STRONG INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP
MOIST PROFILES. WET DOWNBURSTS ARE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND INTENSE RAINFALL RATES WILL ALLOW
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. UNCERTAINTY REMAIN IN HOW LONG INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS STORMS CAN CONTINUE TO DEVELOP BUT THE MOIST
PROFILES WITH MINIMAL OVERNIGHT CAPPING MAY ALLOW STORMS TO
PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 155 PM CDT FRI JUN 27 2025
NEAR PERSISTENT PATTERN CONTINUES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA SUPPORTING
GOOD COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. EXPECT DAILY HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY AND PUSHING
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. THE FRONT WOULD MARK A FOCUSED
CORRIDOR OF HIGHER SHOWERS AND STORMS AND MAY USHER IN SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS BUT THIS SCENARIO REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. THE PATTERN SHOWS NO LARGE CHANGES THROUGH LATE NEXT
WEEK AND THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE WITH DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS MORNING ACROSS NE OK AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING INTO NW AR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE,
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
SOME GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NE OK SITES.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 91 76 94 75 / 40 20 20 40
FSM 91 74 95 75 / 50 10 40 10
MLC 91 75 93 75 / 30 0 20 10
BVO 90 72 93 71 / 40 30 30 50
FYV 87 72 91 72 / 60 20 50 30
BYV 86 71 91 72 / 60 20 60 30
MKO 88 74 92 74 / 50 10 30 30
MIO 88 72 92 72 / 50 30 50 50
F10 90 74 92 73 / 40 10 20 30
HHW 90 73 92 74 / 20 0 20 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...04
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