704
FXUS64 KTSA 290510
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1210 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT WEEK WITH
HEAT INDICES OF 95-105 F ACROSS THE AREA.
- DAILY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE NEXT
WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS, DOWNBURST WINDS, AND LIGHTNING
BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 847 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
OVERALL, THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO MAJOR UPDATE APPEARS TO
BE REQUIRED. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS CONTINUE
TO TREND DOWNWARD WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, WITH COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO FURTHER DIMINISH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT REMAINS LIKELY
TO FOCUS LARGELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND MISSOURI, PERHAPS
BRUSHING PARTS OF FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
THE CURRENT LOW (20-30 PERCENT) POPS HAVE THESE EXPECTATIONS WELL
IN HAND. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING GIVEN SLOW STORM MOTIONS, ESPECIALLY IF THE RAINFALL
OCCURS IN AREAS THAT SAW MORE THAN PLENTY TODAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS IN
PLACE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ANY ONGOING PRECIP THIS EVENING
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET WITH DECREASING INSTABILITY. MOSTLY
DRY AND QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT, THOUGH SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT PARTS OF FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT. LOWS REMAIN SEASONABLE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 202 PM CDT SAT JUN 28 2025
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR DAILY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WITH A NEARLY PERSISTENT SUPPLY OF RICH GULF
MOISTURE TO THE REGION. IT STILL APPEARS A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE CWA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AND STALL WITH THE
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES AND COVERAGE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. ANY INTRUSION OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE BRIEF, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY
RETURNING. HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN
THE TOP CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, AT LEAST LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS AND STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGH THE
PERIOD, GENERALLY IN THE 90S DURING THE DAY AND 70S AT NIGHT,
WHICH IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 95-105
DEGREES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS
AND CLOUD COVER, SOME AREAS MAY REACH OR EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA
TOMORROW... AND THIS WILL BE CONSIDERED IN FUTURE FORECAST
PACKAGES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1210 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT FEW TO SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
THE CWA. THERE REMAINS SOME ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY AREAS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AT THIS TIME WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF MENTIONING DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH
DEVELOPMENT. DURING THE DAY SUNDAY, SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
ARE AGAIN FORECAST ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. SLIGHT CHANCE
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON, THOUGH FOR NOW WILL KEEP
TAF SITES DRY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
BETTER SIGNAL FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ARRIVES AFTER 00Z AS A
COMPLEX COULD MOVE OUT OF KANSAS AND AFFECT NE OK AND NW AR SITES
DURING THE EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED PROB30 GROUPS FOR THIS
SCENARIO UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT IN GUIDANCE EMERGES.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 95 75 91 72 / 20 30 50 30
FSM 95 75 93 74 / 20 10 60 30
MLC 94 75 92 71 / 10 0 50 40
BVO 94 72 91 67 / 20 40 50 20
FYV 92 72 90 69 / 30 20 70 30
BYV 91 72 90 69 / 40 20 70 20
MKO 92 74 91 72 / 20 10 60 30
MIO 92 72 88 68 / 30 50 60 20
F10 92 74 90 71 / 10 10 50 40
HHW 93 74 93 72 / 10 0 30 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...04
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