247
FXUS64 KTSA 291709
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1209 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE NEXT
WEEK WITH HEAT INDICES OF 95-105 F ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
MINOR RELIEF MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED MUCH
OF THE NEXT WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS, DOWNBURST WINDS,
AND LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. MONDAY WILL BE THE
DAY OF GREATEST STORM COVERAGE.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TODAY )
ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON EXPECTED. 24 TEMP TRENDS AWAY FROM
YESTERDAYS PRECIP INFLUENCE ARE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER AND
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR YESTERDAYS VALUES. THE
RESULT IS A BROAD FOOTPRINT OF HEAT INDEX VALUES AT OR ABOVE 105
DEGREES. WHILE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY LIMIT WET BULB TEMPS
THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A WINDOW OF HIGHER HEAT STRESS FOR AFTERNOON
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. STORM CHANCES BEGIN TO TREND UPWARD BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON PRIMARILY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND STORM CHANCES
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STORMS SPREAD
SOUTHWARD FROM KS.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. STORM CHANCES WILL SPREAD SOUTH DURING
THE DAY MONDAY, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE GREATER STORM COVERAGE
MAY END UP FARTHER SOUTH THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS MONDAY.
STORM COVERAGE WILL WANE AS THE WEEK GOES ON, BUT NEVER ENTIRELY
DISAPPEAR. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MAY MAKE A BRIEF INTRUSION INTO AT
LEAST NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 95 TO 105 DEGREES WILL
BE COMMON HEADED INTO THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ONGOING WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.
HOWEVER THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A PERIOD OF HIGHER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW IN THE EXACT TIMING BUT NORTHERN LOCATIONS HAVE THE HIGHER
CHANCES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND A BROAD TIME WINDOW OF LOW
CHANCES WAS INCLUDED W/ THIS FCST CYCLE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 93 76 91 72 / 20 30 50 30
FSM 95 76 93 73 / 10 10 60 40
MLC 93 76 91 71 / 10 10 50 40
BVO 93 72 90 67 / 20 50 60 30
FYV 91 72 90 68 / 30 20 60 40
BYV 91 72 91 69 / 30 30 60 30
MKO 93 74 91 72 / 10 20 60 40
MIO 92 72 89 67 / 30 50 60 30
F10 93 74 91 71 / 10 10 50 40
HHW 93 74 93 72 / 0 0 20 30
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ055>057-060>062-
066-067-070>072-074>076.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07
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