984
FXUS64 KTSA 292334
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
634 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
- INCREASING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, EXPANDING TO MUCH
OF THE REGION TOMORROW.
- DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED MUCH
OF THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS, DOWNBURST WINDS, AND
LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. MONDAY WILL BE THE DAY
OF GREATEST STORM COVERAGE.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK
WITH HEAT INDICES GENERALLY 95-105 F ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
MINOR RELIEF MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
GUIDANCE VARIES REGARDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TONIGHT, CASTING
DOUBT ON ANY ONE SCENARIO. HOWEVER, RECENT CAM RUNS HAVE BEGUN TO
CONVERGE ON THE IDEA OF SCATTERED STORMS MOVING SOUTH FROM KANSAS
INTO THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL HOLD ONTO AT
LEAST LOW POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THERE COULD BE A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE A BOUNDARY/ ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH KANSAS MAKES A RUN FOR NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA. AGAIN, IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE WHEN IT REACHES OUR AREA, BUT INSTABILITY AND A STRENGTHENING
LLJ SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN POPS FOR
AT LEAST NORTHERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...
AN OUTCOME SUPPORTED BY HREF NPS AND MPAS MODELS. AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE LATELY, HEAVY RAINFALL/ LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND STRONG
TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH STORMS THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT, THOUGH SOME LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR AS WELL.
OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS,
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S AND LIGHT WINDS.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING TOMORROW
MORNING IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
ALONG THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A SYNOPTIC FRONT
IS FORECAST TO BE SINKING SOUTH THROUGH KANSAS TOMORROW MORNING,
EVENTUALLY MOVING THROUGH E OKLAHOMA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT
AND/OR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY, MOSTLY EXITING BY LATE EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. IT
NOW APPEARS THE FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FA,
ALLOWING FOR A SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE NORTH. STILL SUSPECT POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/ STORMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WITH INCREASING
TEMPS AND MOISTURE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. HEAT INDICES
SHOULD BE MORE MANAGEABLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IN THE POST-
FRONTAL AIRMASS, BUT WILL LIKELY REBOUND INTO THE 95-105 F RANGE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGING MOVES OVER THE
REGION. LOW POPS (ISOLATED TO SCATTERED) PERSIST TO END THE WEEK,
WITH POTENTIAL FOR GREATER RAIN CHANCES RETURNING BY THIS WEEKEND
AS A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE PLAINS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2025
ORGANIZED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NWRN AR WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD
ALONG/BEHIND LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPO MVFR VSBYS AT ALL AR SITES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE THIS WINDS DOWN AFTER SUNSET. ADDITIONAL STORMS
DEVELOPING SOUTH CENTRAL KS MAY MAKE A RUN AT NERN OK SITES IN THE
SHORT TERM. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP MORE THUNDERSTORMS INTO
NERN OK FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING, AND THEN ANOTHER
ROUND WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS UNSETTLED PATTERN RESULTS IN
PROB30 GROUPS MOST SITES, WITH EXACT TIMING OF ANY CONVECTIVE IMPACTS
LOW CONFIDENCE AFTER THIS EVENING ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 75 91 71 90 / 30 50 30 10
FSM 76 94 73 92 / 20 50 50 20
MLC 75 92 71 90 / 0 50 50 20
BVO 72 90 67 89 / 40 50 30 0
FYV 72 90 68 88 / 30 50 40 10
BYV 71 90 68 88 / 40 40 30 10
MKO 74 90 71 89 / 20 50 40 10
MIO 72 88 68 88 / 40 50 30 0
F10 74 90 71 88 / 10 50 50 10
HHW 74 93 72 92 / 0 20 40 20
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ055>057-060>062-
066-067-070>072-074>076.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...69
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