869
FXUS64 KTSA 301120
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
620 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA, WITH A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
- DAILY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS, DOWNBURST WINDS, AND LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK
WITH HEAT INDICES GENERALLY 95-103 F ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
MINOR RELIEF WILL BRIEFLY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WANE WITH TIME. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO REIGNITE BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, AND A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BRING THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS. HAVE
SHIFTED THE AXIS OF HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE NBM
POSITION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING. ONCE AGAIN, HAVE SHIFTED THE MAIN AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH FROM WHAT THE NBM DEPICTS. A LITTLE LESS HUMID
AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT, BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, BUT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY ON ANY
GIVEN DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR EARLY JULY NORMALS,
WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE 100 EACH AFTERNOON THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
RAIN AND STORMS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
HOURS OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING ACROSS NE OK INTO NW AR SITES AS A FRONT ENTERS THE REGION.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MAINLY ACROSS SE OK AND W AR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER
AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 91 71 89 68 / 50 20 10 0
FSM 93 73 91 72 / 60 30 20 0
MLC 93 71 89 68 / 60 40 20 10
BVO 90 67 88 63 / 60 20 10 0
FYV 89 68 88 64 / 60 30 20 0
BYV 90 69 86 64 / 60 20 10 0
MKO 91 71 89 68 / 60 30 20 0
MIO 89 68 86 64 / 70 20 10 0
F10 91 70 88 67 / 50 30 20 10
HHW 93 72 91 72 / 30 30 20 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...04
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page