988
FXUS64 KTSA 301539
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1039 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA, WITH A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
- DAILY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS, DOWNBURST WINDS, AND LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK
WITH HEAT INDICES GENERALLY 95-103 F ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
MINOR RELIEF WILL BRIEFLY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TODAY )
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS STEADILY EXPANDING EASTWARD ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH EVENTUAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING
INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY FROM SE OK INTO WESTERN AR DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LESSER STORM COVERAGE FURTHER NORTH BUT CHANCES ARE
NOT ZERO AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. UPDATED FORECAST WILL ADJUST FOR PRECIP TRENDS BUT THE
OVERALL IDEA IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING. ONCE AGAIN, HAVE SHIFTED THE MAIN AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH FROM WHAT THE NBM DEPICTS. A LITTLE LESS HUMID
AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT, BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, BUT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY ON ANY
GIVEN DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR EARLY JULY NORMALS,
WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE 100 EACH AFTERNOON THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
RAIN AND STORMS HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING
HOURS OUTSIDE OF SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN BY LATE
MORNING ACROSS NE OK INTO NW AR SITES AS A FRONT ENTERS THE REGION.
BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ARRIVE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
MAINLY ACROSS SE OK AND W AR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER
AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 91 71 89 68 / 20 20 10 0
FSM 93 73 91 72 / 60 30 20 0
MLC 93 71 89 68 / 60 40 20 10
BVO 90 67 88 63 / 30 20 10 0
FYV 89 68 88 64 / 60 30 20 0
BYV 90 69 86 64 / 60 20 10 0
MKO 91 71 89 68 / 50 30 20 0
MIO 89 68 86 64 / 30 20 10 0
F10 91 70 88 67 / 50 30 20 10
HHW 93 72 91 72 / 30 30 20 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...04
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