655
FXUS64 KTSA 301731
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1231 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA, WITH A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
- DAILY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS, DOWNBURST WINDS, AND LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK
WITH HEAT INDICES GENERALLY 95-103 F ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
MINOR RELIEF WILL BRIEFLY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TODAY )
ISSUED AT 1035 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS STEADILY EXPANDING EASTWARD ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE WITH EVENTUAL SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS DEVELOPING
INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY FROM SE OK INTO WESTERN AR DURING
THE AFTERNOON. LESSER STORM COVERAGE FURTHER NORTH BUT CHANCES ARE
NOT ZERO AS WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. UPDATED FORECAST WILL ADJUST FOR PRECIP TRENDS BUT THE
OVERALL IDEA IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING. ONCE AGAIN, HAVE SHIFTED THE MAIN AXIS OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH FROM WHAT THE NBM DEPICTS. A LITTLE LESS HUMID
AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT, BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, BUT MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY ON ANY
GIVEN DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR EARLY JULY NORMALS,
WITH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID 90S TO A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE 100 EACH AFTERNOON THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OK INTO WEST CENTRAL AR
WILL BE THE NEAR TERM AVIATION IMPACT. A GRADUAL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SHOULD LESSEN IMPACTS AT KMLC AND KFSM WITH
TIME. FURTHER NORTH THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT MENTION. CONVECTION WANES AFTER
SUNSET. POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND/OR LOW CEILINGS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WITH HIGHEST CHANCES OF IMPACTS
ACROSS NW AR AND FCST WILL INTRODUCE POTENTIAL FOR LOWER FLIGHT
LEVELS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 91 71 89 68 / 20 20 10 0
FSM 93 73 91 72 / 60 30 20 0
MLC 93 71 89 68 / 60 30 20 10
BVO 90 67 88 63 / 20 20 10 0
FYV 89 68 88 64 / 50 20 20 0
BYV 90 69 86 64 / 50 20 10 0
MKO 91 71 89 68 / 40 20 20 0
MIO 89 68 86 64 / 30 20 10 0
F10 91 70 88 67 / 60 30 20 10
HHW 93 72 91 72 / 50 30 20 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07
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