759
FXUS64 KTSA 302329
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
629 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA, WITH A LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
- DAILY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED MUCH OF THE REST OF THIS WEEK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS, DOWNBURST WINDS, AND LIGHTNING BEING THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.
- HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK
WITH HEAT INDICES GENERALLY 95-103 F ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
MINOR RELIEF WILL BRIEFLY OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
LOW TO MEDIUM SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST INTO THIS
EVENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ANY ONGOING
STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY RESTRICTED TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE WEAKENING TONIGHT. PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND HEAVY RAIN
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING. CONSISTENT WITH THE HREF, MOST PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO HAVE DISSIPATED OR EXITED THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES. FOLLOWING THE FRONT, LOW TEMPS
WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS...
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA... GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL INFLUENCE TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDICES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE 60S.
RESULTING HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ASSOCIATED HEAT INDICES MAY STRUGGLE
TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES TOMORROW FOR MUCH OF NE OK AND NW AR. THERE
WON'T BE QUITE AS MUCH RELIEF IN SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR THOUGH,
WHERE THE HIS COULD STILL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THERE MAY
BE A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS TOMORROW, MAINLY ACROSS SE OK OR
W-CENTRAL AR, BUT MOST LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO STAY DRY UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. AS THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS EAST WEDNESDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE REGION, PROVIDING INCREASING TEMPS AND
MOISTURE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP DAILY POPS IN
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT WITH THE EXPECTATION
THAT MOST LOCATIONS STAY DRY ON ANY GIVEN DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HEAT
INDICES WILL ALSO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 95-105F RANGE AS WE HEAD INTO
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
BY SATURDAY, AN UPPER TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO BE MOVING OFF OF THE
ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS STATES, THOUGH THERE IS DISAGREEMENT
REGARDING HOW THIS WILL INFLUENCE RAIN POTENTIAL FOR OUR AREA. FOR
NOW, NBM POPS SEEM REASONABLE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR MUCH OF NE OK AND NW AR. THE PATTERN APPEARS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES.
PRECIPITATION MAY COULD IMPACT TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK, PRIMARILY IF THE WETTER SCENARIO PLAYS OUT. BUT OVERALL,
EXPECT HIGH IN THE 90S TO PERSIST WITH HEAT INDICES GENERALLY
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 90S/ LOWER 100S.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUN 30 2025
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SERN OK ALONG/NEAR REMNANT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS EVENING, SOME OF WHICH IS IN THE VICINITY OF
MLC. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY E/ESE THROUGH THE
EVENING. MOST LIKELY CONVECTIVE IMPACTS TO MLC IN THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS, WITH DECREASING POTENTIAL BY LATE EVENING, AS THE ACTIVITY
DRIFTS AWAY FROM THE TERMINAL. VERY LOW POTENTIAL OF ANY OF THIS
DEVELOPING AS FAR NORTH AS FSM. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SOME
LOW CLOUD/FOG POTENTIAL NWRN AR SITES LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING, OTHERWISE VFR WITH A LIGHT NORTH WIND ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 71 88 68 91 / 10 0 0 20
FSM 73 92 72 93 / 30 20 0 30
MLC 71 90 69 92 / 50 10 10 20
BVO 67 88 64 89 / 10 0 0 20
FYV 69 88 65 89 / 20 10 0 20
BYV 69 87 64 89 / 20 10 0 10
MKO 71 88 68 89 / 20 10 0 30
MIO 69 86 65 88 / 10 0 0 20
F10 70 88 68 90 / 30 10 10 30
HHW 72 91 72 92 / 40 20 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...69
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