683
FXUS64 KTSA 051123
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
623 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S. PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN BY THURSDAY WITH HEAT INDICES
CLIMBING ABOVE 100 DEGREES. HEAT HEADLINES COULD RETURN MID TO
LATE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
UPPER RIDGING WILL EXPAND THROUGH THIS MORNING AND TODAY, PROMOTING
LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO TODAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SE OK OR NW
AR, BUT KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TICK UP A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE
MID 90S.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, THOUGH SOME PERIODIC LOW RAIN CHANCES CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE
FLUCTUATES AND WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ALONG ITS NORTHERN/EASTERN
PERIPHERY. IN GENERAL, NBM POPS SEEMED APPROPRIATE THROUGH THIS
TIME, HOWEVER, WHICH GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10% THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE EXTENDED IS LIKELY TO BE THE RETURN OF
DANGEROUS HEAT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND TEMPERATURES
CLIMB. HIGH TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 100S AND POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. AS IT APPEARS NOW, HEAT
HEADLINES SEEM PROBABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
BY LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RIDGE
MAY BREAK DOWN AS STRONG TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE NW CONUS AND
POTENTIALLY PHASES WITH WEAKER TROUGHING ACROSS SE CONUS. IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR, COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WOULD BECOME FAVORED
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, SPREAD REMAINS HIGH AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND A CONTINUATION OF PREDOMINANTLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
WOULD RESULT IF STRONGER TROUGHING REMAINS TOO FAR TO THE NORTH. FOR
NOW, WILL STICK WITH NBM POPS WHICH SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND BRING
SLIGHTLY INCREASING RAIN/ STORM CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. EITHER WAY, CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
SOME FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE AT KFYV FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 91 72 94 74 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 94 71 96 74 / 10 0 0 0
MLC 92 71 95 73 / 10 0 0 0
BVO 91 68 94 71 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 90 68 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 91 68 94 69 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 92 70 94 72 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 91 70 93 72 / 0 0 0 0
F10 91 70 93 71 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 92 70 93 72 / 10 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...05
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