547
FXUS64 KTSA 051645
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 80S OR LOWER 90S. PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES RETURN BY THURSDAY WITH HEAT INDICES
CLIMBING ABOVE 100 DEGREES. HEAT HEADLINES COULD RETURN MID TO
LATE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 807 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
MODELS FORECAST RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION TODAY AS
THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST EXPANDS IN SCOPE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS. OVERALL, NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS
REQUIRED TO THE GOING FORECAST. FORECAST HIGHS WERE TWEAKED UP
SLIGHTLY TO BE CLOSER IN LINE WITH MOS. WINDS WERE TWEAKED UP THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS E OK, THOUGH THEY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY TAME FOR
OUR STANDARDS.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
UPPER RIDGING WILL EXPAND THROUGH THIS MORNING AND TODAY, PROMOTING
LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR TWO TODAY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF SE OK OR NW
AR, BUT KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO TICK UP A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S, HEAT INDICES WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE
MID 90S.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING, THOUGH SOME PERIODIC LOW RAIN CHANCES CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AS THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE
FLUCTUATES AND WEAK DISTURBANCES PASS ALONG ITS NORTHERN/EASTERN
PERIPHERY. IN GENERAL, NBM POPS SEEMED APPROPRIATE THROUGH THIS
TIME, HOWEVER, WHICH GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10% THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE EXTENDED IS LIKELY TO BE THE RETURN OF
DANGEROUS HEAT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AND TEMPERATURES
CLIMB. HIGH TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 90S WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS RESULTS IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 100S AND POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR SEVERAL LOCATIONS. AS IT APPEARS NOW, HEAT
HEADLINES SEEM PROBABLE FOR AT LEAST SOME PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
BY LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE RIDGE
MAY BREAK DOWN AS STRONG TROUGHING MOVES INTO THE NW CONUS AND
POTENTIALLY PHASES WITH WEAKER TROUGHING ACROSS SE CONUS. IF THIS
WERE TO OCCUR, COOLER AND WETTER CONDITIONS WOULD BECOME FAVORED
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, SPREAD REMAINS HIGH AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS AND A CONTINUATION OF PREDOMINANTLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
WOULD RESULT IF STRONGER TROUGHING REMAINS TOO FAR TO THE NORTH. FOR
NOW, WILL STICK WITH NBM POPS WHICH SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND BRING
SLIGHTLY INCREASING RAIN/ STORM CHANCES EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. EITHER WAY, CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. FOG THAT
HAS DEVELOPED AT KFYV THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS IS LESS LIKELY
TONIGHT, SO WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS
MAY BECOME GUSTY AT KBVO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A LITTLE LESS LIKELY
AT THE OTHER E OK SITES.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 92 72 95 75 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 94 73 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 93 71 94 73 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 91 69 94 72 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 89 68 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 91 69 94 70 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 92 71 94 73 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 91 70 94 74 / 0 0 0 0
F10 92 70 94 72 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 92 70 94 72 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...30
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