373
FXUS64 KTSA 051752
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1252 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
- A WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S LATE WEEK. PREDOMINANTLY
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
- HEAT INDEX VALUE CLIMB BACK NEAR/ABOVE 100 DEGREES EACH
AFTERNOON THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAT HEADLINES COULD
RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
DOME OF MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED CENTERED OVER THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WAS SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO PUSH EASTWARD WHILE AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
WAS DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN COLORADO. IN RESPONSE, SCATTERED
DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS HAD DEVELOPED OVER THE CWA WITH LIGHT
WINDS TRYING TO BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. THESE CONDITIONS WERE AIDING IN EXPECTED AFTERNOON TEMPS
TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME MORE COMMON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITS. AT THE SAME
TIME, THE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO EXPAND EASTWARD OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. LOW TEMPS IN THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S ARE FORECAST.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINATE
FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE RETURN
OF BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS EACH DAY. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
TRANSPORT MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION AND AID IN MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. THUS, A WARMING TREND COMBINED WITH
MORE HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BRING BACK AFTERNOON TEMPS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR/ABOVE 100 DEG
EACH AFTERNOON THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HEAT HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NECESSARY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
OVER THE WEEKEND, LATEST MODEL DATA CONTINUED TO DIFFER WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE WHILE A WAVE MOVES OUT
OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THIS TIME,
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WITH THE
WAVE SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION WITH AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE STILL OVER THE CWA. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGGED TO
DROP MORE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL CARRY
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP MONDAY/TUESDAY AND ALSO SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS OF LOW/MID 90S IN RESPONSE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CDT TUE AUG 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES. FOG THAT
HAS DEVELOPED AT KFYV THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS IS LESS LIKELY
TONIGHT, SO WILL NOT BE INCLUDED IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. WINDS
MAY BECOME GUSTY AT KBVO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A LITTLE LESS LIKELY
AT THE OTHER E OK SITES.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 72 95 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 73 96 75 98 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 71 94 73 96 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 69 94 72 97 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 68 92 71 94 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 69 94 70 95 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 71 94 73 96 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 70 94 74 96 / 0 0 0 0
F10 70 94 72 97 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 70 94 72 96 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30
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