596
FXUS64 KTSA 060527
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1227 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
- PERSISTENT, ALBEIT SEASONAL, HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAS RETURNED TO
THE REGION, EXTENDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
HEAT HEADLINES LIKELY NECESSARY BY LATE THIS WEEK.
- LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETREATS TO THE WEST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
A MORE PREDOMINANT SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION IS BECOMING MORE
ESTABLISHED ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS
EVENING, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAVING MOVED MORE INTO SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND LEE TROUGHING POSITIONED TO THE WEST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW, LEADING TO A MORE BREEZY DAY THAN THE LAST FEW, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AFTER SLIGHTLY HIGHER MORNING
LOW TEMPERATURES, EXPECT A COUPLE DEGREE UPTICK IN AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ALSO COMPARED TO TUESDAY. DEW POINTS SHOULD ALSO HOVER
NEAR TO JUST ABOVE YESTERDAY'S VALUES. A FEW MESONET SITES SAW
MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES FROM 100 TO 101 IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON
TUESDAY, AND GIVEN THE ABOVE THOUGHTS, THE EXPECTATION IS FOR HEAT
INDEX VALUES NEAR BUT JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MOST
LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THE AREA SHOULD STAY ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH CENTER. OVERALL, THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME
FRAME LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST STRETCH OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAY PERIOD.
WITH DAY-TO-DAY DEW POINT FLUCTUATIONS APPEARING MINIMAL, GIVEN NO
MAJOR INFUSION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OR SIGNIFICANT DRYING, EXPECT
THE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO PEAK DURING THIS THREE DAY STRETCH AS WELL.
HEAT HEADLINES REMAIN LIKELY DURING AT LEAST THE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY TIME FRAME AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH BEYOND
SATURDAY IS MORE UNCERTAIN.
TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GENERAL THEME REMAINS THE RIDGE
RETREATING TO THE WEST SOME AS UPPER TROUGHING SETS UP IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
REMAIN WELL ENOUGH NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS TO KEEP
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN FROM PUSHING THIS FAR SOUTH, AS WELL AS
KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA DRY. LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DO
BRUSH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY
NIGHT ON, BUT AT THIS TIME, NOTHING LOOKS SIGNIFICANT FROM A
RAINFALL STANDPOINT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH
WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AT TIMES DURING THE DAY TODAY AT
THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 95 75 97 78 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 96 74 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 94 73 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 95 72 97 75 / 0 10 0 0
FYV 93 71 94 73 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 95 71 96 72 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 94 73 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 94 73 96 76 / 0 10 0 0
F10 94 72 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 94 72 96 74 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05
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