095
FXUS64 KTSA 061709
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1209 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
- PERSISTENT, ALBEIT SEASONAL, HEAT AND HUMIDITY HAS RETURNED TO
THE REGION, EXTENDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
HEAT HEADLINES LIKELY NECESSARY BY LATE THIS WEEK.
- LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETREATS TO THE WEST.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1021 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO
BREEZY CONDITIONS. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED
NOW, TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB A FEW DEGREES ABOVE YESTERDAY. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN SIMILAR. THE END RESULT WILL BE AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES IN THE LOW 100S FOR MANY AREAS, LIKELY JUST SHY OF HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH NO RAIN
EXPECTED TODAY.
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH AND EAST TOWARD THE REGION INTO
THE WEEKEND, ALTHOUGH THE AREA SHOULD STAY ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE HIGH CENTER. OVERALL, THE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME
FRAME LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST STRETCH OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAY PERIOD.
WITH DAY-TO-DAY DEW POINT FLUCTUATIONS APPEARING MINIMAL, GIVEN NO
MAJOR INFUSION OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OR SIGNIFICANT DRYING, EXPECT
THE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO PEAK DURING THIS THREE DAY STRETCH AS WELL.
HEAT HEADLINES REMAIN LIKELY DURING AT LEAST THE THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY TIME FRAME AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH BEYOND
SATURDAY IS MORE UNCERTAIN.
TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE GENERAL THEME REMAINS THE RIDGE
RETREATING TO THE WEST SOME AS UPPER TROUGHING SETS UP IN THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY LOOKS TO
REMAIN WELL ENOUGH NORTH OF THE KANSAS AND MISSOURI BORDERS TO KEEP
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COOLDOWN FROM PUSHING THIS FAR SOUTH, AS WELL
AS KEEPING MOST OF THE AREA DRY. LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES DO BRUSH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AT TIMES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON, BUT AT THIS TIME, NOTHING LOOKS SIGNIFICANT
FROM A RAINFALL STANDPOINT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
QUIET AVIATION WEATHER WITH VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH, A BIT LIGHTER
OVERNIGHT, BUT THEN RETURN TOMORROW. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR
EXCEPT FOR A FEW AFTERNOON CUMULUS CLOUDS IN THE 4-6 KFT LAYER AND
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 95 76 97 78 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 97 74 98 77 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 95 73 97 76 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 95 71 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 93 71 95 72 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 95 71 97 73 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 94 72 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 94 73 96 76 / 0 0 0 0
F10 94 71 96 75 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 94 71 96 74 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ054>056-
059>061-064>067-070>074.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...06
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page