738
FXUS64 KTSA 062239
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
- PERSISTENT, ALBEIT SEASONAL, HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED INTO
THE WEEKEND. HEAT ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES
LIKELY FRIDAY.
- LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR THE KANSAS AND
MISSOURI BORDERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETREATS TO THE WEST.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CONTINUING TO EXPAND
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME
THOUGH, A MCS CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH KANSAS
AND MISSOURI ALONG AN ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED CLOUD TOPS WERE BEGINNING TO WARM.
HOWEVER, THERE CONTINUED TO BE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AHEAD/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY,
SURFACE INHIBITION REMAINED COMMON WITH INCREASING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING. CURRENT THINKING WOULD BE FOR
THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT WITH THE
RISING MID LEVEL HEIGHTS, THOUGH WILL ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE POP AND
MONITOR CLOSELY AS IT CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF OKLAHOMA.
UNDERNEATH THE EXPANDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, EARLY AFTERNOON
TEMPS WERE RUNNING SLIGHTLY WARMER COMPARED TO 24-HRS AGO ALONG
WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL HELP HEAT INDEX
VALUES REACH INTO THE MID 90S TO JUST ABOVE 100 DEG THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. WINDS
THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING, THOUGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED
WHICH WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO
108 DEG RANGE ARE FORECAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. THUS, A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO THE ARKANSAS
RIVER VALLEY IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS, AND LIKELY AGAIN FRIDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK LOOK TO COME
BACK CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA IN RESPONSE TO
THE RIDGE RETREATING WESTWARD SLIGHTLY, WITH EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MORE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. A
SHORTWAVE IS ALSO PROGGED TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA EACH NIGHT INTERACTING WITH THE
WAVE WILL CREATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE CWA. THOUGH, A LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE POP EXISTS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, MONDAY NIGHT, AND TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BEFORE THE
WAVE EXITS OFF TO THE EAST NEXT WEDNESDAY. WITH THE MAJORITY OF
THE PRECIPITATION CURRENTLY FORECAST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA, NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CDT WED AUG 6 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU THE PERIOD. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS DUE TO AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET. SOUTH WINDS RETURN BY LATE MORNING THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS TO
20 KTS AT THE NE OK SITES.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 76 97 78 98 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 74 98 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 73 97 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 71 97 75 99 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 71 95 72 95 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 71 97 73 96 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 72 97 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 73 96 76 97 / 0 0 0 10
F10 71 96 75 97 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 71 96 74 97 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR OKZ054>056-
059>061-064>067-070>074.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ054>056-
059>061-064>067-070>074.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...30
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