530
FXUS64 KTSA 070537
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1237 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
- PERSISTENT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAT
HEADLINES LIKELY NEEDED ON SATURDAY.
- LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (10-20%) NEAR THE KANSAS
AND MISSOURI BORDERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETREATS TO THE WEST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
LATEST IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING OFF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH THIS SHORTWAVE ISN'T
EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY AFFECT OUR AREA, IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE OVER
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS THIS MORNING. HI-RES MODEL DATA HAVE CONSISTENTLY
SHOWN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWER/STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE FAR SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SHORTWAVE, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KS. HOWEVER,
CAMS DO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR THE OK/KS AND AR/MO BORDERS
BY OR JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK. HAVE INCLUDED SOME SILENT POPS (10%
CHANCE) FOR THIS POSSIBILITY FOR THE NORTHERN-TIER COUNTIES OF THE
CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING.
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY: MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. AT THE SURFACE, A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS WESTERN KS/NE AND WILL HELP SET UP A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OK. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AND BECOME
BREEZY BY MID-MORNING FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 AND
ALONG/NORTH OF I-44. GUSTS 25-30 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THESE
CORRIDORS BY THE AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.
THE BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CAUSE SOME MUGGY DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. MEANWHILE, THE STRENGTHENING
RIDGE ALOFT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER
TODAY THAN ON WEDNESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE INTENSE HEAT THE
HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 109
DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE HIGHEST VALUES WILL OCCUR IN THE AR
RIVER VALLEY AND ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN OK. A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT BETWEEN 1 PM AND 8 PM FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK
AND WEST-CENTRAL AR. DID ADD CRAIG AND MAYES COUNTIES TO THE
ADVISORY FOR TODAY.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
THE STAGNANT MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER DRIVER, KEEPING THINGS UNSEASONABLY
HOT AND MOSTLY DRY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY HOT EACH OF THESE DAYS, FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY OF THE PERIOD, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING THE UPPER 90S AND LOWER 100S. PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT SIMILAR EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY, MAYBE
EVEN FLIRT WITH EXTREME HEAT WARNING CRITERIA FOR A FEW SPOTS ON
FRIDAY. WILL KEEP THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY IN PLACE ON FRIDAY FOR
NOW, BUT A FEW MORE COUNTIES MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE ADVISORY
AND/OR UPGRADED TO A WARNING IF TRENDS CONTINUE. WILL LET THE NEXT
FORECAST SHIFT REEVALUATE. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED ON SATURDAY, AS WELL.
BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND, TRENDS IN MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RETREATING WESTWARD AND WEAKENING
SOME AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SETS UP IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA, BUT CLOSE ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT COOLDOWN, WITH TEMPERATURES
COOLING CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE, THAT WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH MAY ALSO HELP INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY AND/OR NIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE LATEST GFS SOLUTION SEEMS TO BE THE MORE
AGGRESSIVE MODEL AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WITH SO MUCH
VARIABILITY IN MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA, WILL LET NBM POPS RIDE AT
THIS TIME, GIVING THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS CLOSER TO THE
OK/KS AND AR/MO BORDERS ALMOST EACH DAY. HOWEVER, POPS WILL LIKELY
BE REFINED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS
AN OUTSIDE SHOT OF A "SUNRISE SURPRISE" SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AT
THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SITES NEAR DAYBREAK THIS MORNING, BUT THE
CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF'S. SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST
OVER 20 KNOTS AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SITES DURING THE DAY
TODAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 98 79 100 79 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 99 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 98 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 98 75 100 76 / 10 0 0 0
FYV 95 73 96 74 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 97 74 98 74 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 97 76 98 77 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 96 77 98 78 / 10 0 0 0
F10 97 75 99 77 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 96 74 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ054>057-059>062-064>067-070>074.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ054>056-
059>061-064>067-070>074.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ019-020-029.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...05
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