849
FXUS64 KTSA 071710
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1210 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
- PERSISTENT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAT
HEADLINES LIKELY NEEDED ON SATURDAY.
- LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (10-20%) NEAR THE KANSAS
AND MISSOURI BORDERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETREATS TO THE WEST.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
PRECIP ACROSS FAR NE OK AND NW AR, ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH, HAS DWINDLED LATE THIS MORNING AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A
SHOWER OR STORM COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE TROUGH
AXIS, WHICH CLIPS NE OK AND NW AR... PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. WITH UPPER RIDGING
INTENSIFYING OVERHEAD, THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A HOT DAY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 90S.
GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/ LOW-MID 70S, PORTIONS OF THE
AREA WILL EXPERIENCE HEAT INDEX VALUES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING
105 DEGREES TODAY. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE FAIRLY GUSTY,
ESPECIALLY FOR NE OK, WHICH COULD HELP OFFSET SENSIBLE DISCOMFORT
A TAD, BUT NONETHELESS, A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE REGION UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.
QUIET CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE 70S. WINDS MAY STAY SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED, MAINLY NW OF I-44, WITH A LLJ INTENSIFYING OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY, ANOTHER SUBTLE WAVE WILL IMPINGE ON NORTHERN PARTS
OF THE CWA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FRIDAY, AND WE COULD
AGAIN SEE A SHOWER OR TWO DEVELOP NEAR SUNRISE... MAINLY NORTH OF
I-44. WITH THAT SAID, EXPECT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN TOO LOW TO
WARRANT MENTIONABLE POPS, AND ANY RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
LOCALIZED AND GENERALLY LIGHT.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
THE RIDGE EXPANDS FURTHER ON FRIDAY, LIKELY PROVIDING THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK. WILL MAINTAIN THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR
TOMORROW AS TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S OR LOWER 100S WITH HEAT
INDICES IN THE 105-109 RANGE. WILL NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
THE POTENTIAL NEED FOR AN UPGRADE TO EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN
SPOTS, AS THE HI COULD ECLIPSE 110 IN SOME AREAS. SIMILAR TO
TODAY, WINDS COULD HELP REDUCE WBGT SEVERITY IN NE OK, BUT
REGARDLESS, TOMORROW WILL FEATURE DANGEROUS HEAT FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA... BREEZE OR NOT. WITH SOME LINGERING UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
DEWPOINTS/ MAX TEMPS, WILL NOT UPGRADE ANY AREAS TO A WARNING
WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THIS
BECOMES REQUIRED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
SATURDAY WILL LIKELY FEATURE A CONTINUATION OF HOT AND
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER, WITH HIS CLIMBING ABOVE 105 DEGREES YET
AGAIN. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY IS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY. THE RIDGE
FLATTENS AND SHIFTS WEST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY. WHILE THE HIGHEST PRECIP
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO THE NORTH/ WEST OF THE FA, HAVE
MAINTAINED 10-20% POPS NEAR THE OK-KS BORDER SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
LIKELY A MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT OF THE PATTERN CHANGE,
TEMPERATURES WILL RETREAT BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 90S SUNDAY/
MONDAY. WITH LESSENING INFLUENCE FROM RIDGING, NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES. FOR THE TIME BEING,
WILL KEEP LOWER POPS, CLOSE TO THE NBM, GIVEN THE TYPICAL
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION IN THIS REGIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
FEW TO SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN COMMON ACROSS THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING. THE
STRONGER WIND GUSTS OF GENERALLY 20-25KT ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT TONIGHT,
SURFACE WINDS WEAKEN WHILE WINDS ALOFT REMAIN GUSTY. THUS, WILL
CARRY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TAF SITES. CLOUD
COVER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FEW TO
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MID CLOUDS LATE
MORNING OVER WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 79 100 80 99 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 76 101 78 99 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 75 99 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 76 100 76 99 / 10 10 0 0
FYV 73 97 74 96 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 73 99 74 97 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 75 98 77 98 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 77 98 78 98 / 10 10 0 0
F10 75 99 76 98 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 74 97 75 95 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>057-
059>062-064>067-070>075.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR OKZ049-053>057-
059>062-064>067-070>076.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ARZ019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...20
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