131
FXUS64 KTSA 080531
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1231 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT THU AUG 7 2025
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OK.
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST-
CENTRAL/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM TODAY. ADDITIONAL
HEAT HEADLINES LIKELY NEEDED ON SATURDAY.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES (10-30%) LATE THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING RETREATS TO THE WEST.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD OVER THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS
TODAY. MODELS DO SHOW SIGNS OF THE RIDGE WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY
AS A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY THIS EVENING. UNFORTUNATELY,
LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING WILL MAXIMIZE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION, RESULTING IN THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 90S/NEAR 100
DEG THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OK, AS A ROBUST SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS DURING THE DAYTIME. HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS WILL
REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44, WHERE GUSTS 25-30 MPH WILL BE
COMMON, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES. ONCE AGAIN, THE
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ADVECT SOME VERY MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION BY
LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON, CAUSING DEWPOINTS TO RISE INTO THE
LOW-MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE INTENSE HEAT AND
HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL PRODUCE SOME VERY DANGEROUS HEAT.
OBSERVED DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN OVERACHIEVING IN COMPARISON
TO MODEL DATA OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THAT SAID,
WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO EXPAND THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE
OTTAWA, DELAWARE, AND CHEROKEE COUNTIES IN OK, AS WELL AS BENTON AND
CARROL COUNTIES IN AR. FURTHERMORE, UPGRADED PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OK (ALONG AND JUST EAST OF HIGHWAY 75) TO AN EXTREME HEAT WARNING.
IT'S POSSIBLE THAT THE WARNING WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED FURTHER AND
INCLUDE MORE COUNTIES SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. WILL
CONTINUE TO EVALUATE TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO FLATTEN/WEAKEN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A
VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR THAT WILL PERSIST
INTO NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THE WEAKENING RIDGE, UNSEASONABLY HOT
TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN STORYLINE
ON SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAT HEADLINES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY,
WITH MORE BORDERLINE CONDITIONS AND UNCERTAINTY ON SUNDAY.
A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AS RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. AS THIS OCCURS, MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT SHOWING
A SYNOPTIC TROUGH PUSHING/EXPANDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE
PLAINS/CENTRAL CONUS. IF VERIFIED, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGE BY MONDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE BY MIDWEEK. IN
ADDITION, MODEL AND ENSEMBLE DATA DEPICT AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, PERHAPS BECOMING A DAILY OR SEMI-DAILY OCCURRENCE NEXT
WEEK, AS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DEVELOP IN THE SYNOPTIC TROUGH
FLOW. THERE IS STILL LOTS OF DISCREPANCIES IN THE MODELS AT THIS
TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO LET THE NBM SOLUTION RIDE WITH POPS. FUTURE
FORECAST UPDATES WILL WORK TO PIN DOWN THE BEST RAIN CHANCES, AND
POTENTIAL COVERAGE.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUD PASSING OVER THE REGION. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BECOME GUSTY LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 15-25
KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD DIE OFF SOMEWHAT NEAR AND
AFTER SUNSET.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 100 82 99 79 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 101 78 100 77 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 99 78 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 100 77 99 76 / 10 10 0 10
FYV 97 75 96 74 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 98 75 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 99 78 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 98 79 98 77 / 10 10 0 10
F10 99 77 98 76 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 97 75 96 74 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ049-053-054-057>059-062>065-068-072>076.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ055-056-060-061-066-067-070-071.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ARZ001-002-019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...04
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