169
FXUS64 KTSA 081745
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1245 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
- EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT TODAY FROM UNTIL 8 PM FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OK. HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL/ NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS UNTIL 8 PM TODAY.
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY, FROM NOON TO 8 PM.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW-MEDIUM SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (10-40%) LATE THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK
AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RETREATS TO THE WEST.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
A VERY HOT DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE REGION AS INFLUENCE FROM MID-
UPPER RIDGING IS MAXIMIZED. WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE
SURFACE, DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH... GENERALLY IN THE
70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. COMBINED WITH AMBIENT TEMPS IN THE UPPER
90S (PERHAPS CRESTING 100 IN A FEW SPOTS), HEAT INDICES WILL SOAR
INTO THE 100-112 RANGE. AS A RESULT, A MIX OF HEAT ADVISORIES AND
EXTREME HEAT WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.
PLEASE BE SURE TO STAY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IF
WORKING OUTDOORS THIS AFTERNOON.
ASIDE FROM THE HEAT, MOSTLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S OR LOWER 80S. SCATTERED CLOUDS
AND ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BUT ARE
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH EASTWARD EXTENT. SIMILARLY,
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AS THE
LLJ STRENGTHENS ATOP A THETA-E GRADIENT. ANY QPF FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT IS LIKELY TO BE LIGHT AND SPARSE.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL PROVIDE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT AND SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER VERY HOT DAY TOMORROW. THE
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN TOMORROW THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL SLIGHTLY. ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS AND RELATED CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO BE A BIT MORE COMMON
TOMORROW MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. STILL, HEAT INDICES ARE
LIKELY TO COME NEAR OR EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA. GIVEN LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR RECOVERY TONIGHT, OPTED TO
ISSUE ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TOMORROW DESPITE
THE POTENTIAL INHIBITORS MENTIONED ABOVE. ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES
MAY BE REQUIRED ON SUNDAY, THOUGH HIS ARE LIKELY TO BE MORE
MARGINAL AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN.
BY SUNDAY, TROUGHING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS, SENDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO NW OK AND SE KS.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE PARENT TROUGH ROTATE
INTO THE REGION. NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES TEND TO LINGER AROUND
WITH ADDITIONAL LOW PRECIP CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERALL, POPS HAVE INCREASED FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE AS WETTER CONDITIONS ARE
BEGINNING TO APPEAR MORE LIKELY. THIS HAS ALSO LED TO A DECREASE
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY FORWARD. IN FACT, HIGH TEMPS MY FALL
TO BELOW AVERAGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF
CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2025
A BAND OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BECOME
MORE SCATTERED WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE CWA. OTHERWISE, FEW
TO SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, SCATTERED WITH POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF BROKEN
HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS AN
ISOLATED POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AGAIN EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA LIKE WHAT WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING. FOR
NOW THOUGH, WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING IN THE TAFS DUE TO
ISOLATED POTENTIAL/COVERAGE. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD START OUT
BREEZY/GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH, WEAKEN THIS EVENING, AND BECOME
BREEZY AGAIN SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO, WINDS ALOFT REMAIN GUSTY
AGAIN TONIGHT AND WILL CARRY LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR
KBVO/KTUL/KRVS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 82 99 80 97 / 10 10 0 10
FSM 78 100 77 98 / 10 10 0 0
MLC 78 98 77 96 / 10 10 0 0
BVO 78 99 76 98 / 10 10 10 10
FYV 75 96 74 95 / 10 10 0 10
BYV 75 99 74 97 / 10 10 0 10
MKO 77 98 77 96 / 10 10 0 0
MIO 79 98 77 97 / 10 10 10 10
F10 77 98 76 96 / 10 10 0 0
HHW 75 96 75 95 / 10 10 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-054-
057>059-062>065-068-072>076.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-053>068-
070>076.
EXTREME HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ055-056-
060-061-066-067-070-071.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-019-020-
029.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-002-019-
020-029.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...20
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